***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 51.5 54.9 45.8 113.6 70.0 55.9 32.9 48.0 53.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 51.9 59.3 49.2 124.8 69.9 62.3 31.7 48.5 54.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 36.7 61.9 44.5 109.8 65.2 54.2 38.7 46.9 63.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 74.9 84.3 55.2 117.1 73.0 59.4 63.6 70.9 80.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 53.3 64.3 53.6 115.6 71.8 59.0 32.9 49.8 63.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 50.0 52.8 61.3 112.6 64.7 57.9 30.9 44.8 54.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 45.5 59.3 49.4 124.7 73.1 61.2 33.1 41.6 51.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 75.8 85.3 53.8 111.2 68.3 56.5 51.3 70.9 84.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 53.3 70.0 53.7 119.1 73.0 60.6 36.1 48.5 63.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 55.6 65.4 56.4 113.1 70.4 57.5 42.0 51.1 63.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 53.4 60.3 47.9 109.9 67.6 56.6 29.0 48.1 56.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 50.4 63.3 45.1 109.6 66.5 56.2 28.1 42.9 62.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 62.1 56.5 52.7 111.0 67.6 57.7 37.5 50.4 55.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 47.7 79.5 54.6 111.3 67.5 57.8 53.4 66.1 77.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 51.4 58.2 49.1 105.0 63.7 54.8 31.5 47.5 59.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 44.9 52.9 51.1 111.7 67.5 58.0 33.9 40.7 49.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 44.8 52.8 51.1 126.4 74.3 62.0 32.6 42.7 48.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 60.4 75.7 60.5 109.5 69.8 56.0 39.8 52.9 68.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 49.7 56.2 49.6 125.8 70.3 63.1 41.2 46.3 54.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 64.9 79.0 69.8 108.2 65.8 54.6 45.0 59.7 79.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 55.2 65.5 46.0 110.8 66.7 55.6 36.3 48.5 65.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 47.2 53.8 52.3 125.3 70.7 62.8 34.7 45.3 52.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 52.7 53.7 50.5 125.0 70.7 63.1 37.5 45.2 52.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 66.8 71.6 55.5 114.3 69.3 57.9 41.2 61.7 70.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 61.3 67.7 55.2 117.6 70.1 58.0 38.7 57.8 62.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 47.5 58.7 47.3 108.9 65.2 55.3 32.8 40.0 59.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 54.4 64.5 53.7 119.1 70.6 58.1 35.4 50.1 61.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 51.9 57.5 53.6 113.9 69.3 58.4 35.8 47.9 57.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 90.7 102.0 60.4 103.9 63.2 52.7 60.2 80.9 109.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 44.3 48.9 47.6 121.0 67.9 60.1 33.0 40.0 46.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------