***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 8.8 6.1 7.2 89.7 63.0 45.6 0.3 4.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.3 14.4 7.1 88.7 60.9 48.8 1.5 7.8 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.7 14.0 7.5 94.2 61.9 46.5 0.8 8.1 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.8 17.7 9.0 94.6 64.5 48.9 4.4 12.1 18.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.5 14.2 9.0 97.9 64.6 49.7 2.6 4.8 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.9 16.5 11.4 86.1 64.2 48.7 3.6 7.9 19.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.0 14.8 7.2 87.3 59.4 47.7 1.2 10.2 17.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.1 23.5 10.8 100.5 66.4 51.1 9.8 12.5 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.2 16.9 8.9 100.9 65.2 50.2 1.9 7.9 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.2 16.1 10.4 99.9 64.3 50.3 3.0 8.3 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.1 17.4 8.9 95.5 68.2 49.9 2.3 4.6 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.9 15.4 9.1 97.9 67.1 51.0 1.6 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.8 18.1 10.1 91.6 67.1 50.0 2.8 5.8 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 20.5 10.5 108.4 65.9 49.5 2.7 8.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.2 12.8 8.3 87.6 64.2 48.5 1.1 5.2 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.6 17.7 9.4 92.2 67.6 49.7 1.2 6.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.9 7.1 87.4 61.5 48.1 0.4 7.8 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 18.9 12.2 105.5 66.2 51.3 4.4 11.5 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.3 19.9 7.3 94.7 64.1 49.2 0.9 6.7 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 22.5 16.4 112.7 69.6 53.0 5.6 11.4 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 18.8 8.1 100.6 64.9 47.4 4.1 7.4 19.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 18.8 7.3 93.1 65.5 48.7 0.1 10.3 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.1 13.2 7.8 103.8 65.9 49.6 1.6 7.5 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.5 17.4 10.0 101.9 64.8 49.4 3.3 4.3 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.7 14.8 8.5 94.8 65.3 47.9 2.1 10.5 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.8 10.8 103.5 66.4 51.3 4.7 7.1 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.2 9.3 7.9 88.6 63.1 47.0 0.6 4.6 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 4.4 12.1 9.0 89.9 64.6 48.4 1.2 9.7 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.4 25.7 13.7 111.8 66.6 51.7 6.3 17.3 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.3 7.3 90.8 60.2 48.1 0.8 8.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------