***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.0 8.5 7.5 72.6 56.3 44.9 1.0 4.6 10.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.9 9.9 7.4 69.9 59.3 44.8 1.0 4.6 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.1 6.6 63.5 54.3 41.9 2.9 7.5 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 20.0 17.4 8.9 70.9 59.4 45.9 10.1 15.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 15.8 14.5 8.5 70.6 55.7 47.6 8.1 13.5 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.1 18.3 10.9 86.4 59.6 46.9 1.5 8.6 20.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.2 8.1 76.4 60.4 44.3 1.2 6.3 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.8 15.4 8.2 68.1 53.4 43.1 6.2 13.8 23.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 5.9 12.7 8.0 70.0 55.5 47.3 4.4 11.0 15.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.3 12.9 8.7 69.8 54.2 44.8 6.5 11.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 16.2 13.5 7.6 68.2 55.7 44.9 2.7 12.8 16.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.6 7.4 6.9 67.6 54.0 43.9 2.3 5.2 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.7 8.6 76.8 56.3 46.3 2.6 6.8 17.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.8 14.2 9.7 74.8 55.3 46.5 6.1 11.1 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.6 14.6 9.0 75.6 62.8 44.5 2.3 9.6 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.6 8.5 76.7 60.0 46.8 0.7 5.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.7 10.5 8.2 75.6 61.4 46.7 0.5 3.4 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.5 10.6 9.7 68.8 53.1 43.5 5.3 9.3 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.0 9.2 7.0 66.6 58.3 44.7 3.0 7.3 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.5 10.6 65.0 50.7 41.7 4.2 11.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.1 11.2 6.5 62.1 54.6 44.3 4.9 9.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.6 10.9 8.4 75.6 62.0 46.3 0.8 5.4 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.3 10.8 7.0 65.6 56.3 44.4 3.6 9.9 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.8 12.0 8.6 68.1 53.3 44.4 6.6 11.0 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.5 16.9 8.8 74.3 57.2 44.9 3.6 8.0 19.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.6 16.1 7.8 81.2 61.2 44.1 1.4 5.4 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.1 10.5 9.1 80.2 59.5 45.1 2.2 5.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 5.7 16.7 9.3 76.7 62.2 46.1 4.5 12.2 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.5 15.9 10.0 66.4 51.1 42.4 6.3 15.4 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.6 7.2 69.8 58.8 43.7 2.0 6.8 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------