***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 15.5 25.8 15.4 184.7 82.7 68.3 2.0 5.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 14.1 26.4 16.8 208.6 85.8 72.7 2.5 7.1 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 14.7 21.5 15.6 175.7 79.6 64.3 3.0 7.3 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 16.5 23.7 18.6 188.5 80.9 65.9 3.0 8.1 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 11.4 16.9 18.5 183.5 80.1 67.6 1.6 5.2 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 12.1 12.1 20.8 149.8 72.4 63.3 2.5 6.3 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 13.9 26.6 17.0 217.2 87.0 72.9 2.3 3.7 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 22.8 25.4 17.1 161.6 73.7 63.7 4.5 11.7 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 12.4 16.8 18.0 173.4 78.0 68.3 1.7 3.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 19.7 23.6 18.5 162.6 74.2 65.3 2.6 7.6 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 13.2 17.8 16.1 175.3 77.4 65.1 1.4 4.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 14.1 14.6 13.9 163.0 74.5 62.1 1.7 3.7 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.7 15.9 16.9 158.5 73.9 63.7 1.6 5.9 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 17.3 38.9 21.4 195.3 84.6 71.4 3.6 5.9 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 12.2 14.3 16.7 165.5 76.1 66.9 1.5 5.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 8.9 11.2 16.6 167.8 75.3 65.4 1.9 4.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 12.0 21.9 16.8 212.7 85.6 72.3 1.6 4.9 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 17.9 20.3 20.2 153.6 72.0 64.9 3.6 8.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 18.3 29.0 16.9 206.6 85.1 73.2 2.9 4.6 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 21.2 22.2 22.7 148.7 73.2 63.7 5.8 10.7 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 14.3 19.2 16.0 173.8 79.4 64.3 2.3 4.3 9.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 15.4 23.0 17.7 208.4 86.3 73.8 1.9 7.3 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 17.5 27.9 17.8 206.7 83.8 73.5 3.2 5.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 15.5 21.2 19.9 179.9 79.1 68.1 3.8 5.3 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 15.9 24.8 20.8 204.1 83.3 70.7 3.1 4.7 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.5 19.1 13.1 146.5 74.9 59.7 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 15.9 28.7 19.7 207.1 85.9 71.3 2.3 4.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 9.9 11.9 17.5 175.7 77.2 66.2 1.1 5.9 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 28.1 29.0 20.2 147.8 73.5 63.8 5.0 8.1 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 13.8 20.7 16.3 201.6 85.8 71.6 1.3 5.7 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------