***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 10.1 19.8 15.7 115.1 70.8 61.5 2.2 7.6 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 13.8 17.1 17.9 140.1 77.3 66.9 4.1 7.6 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.6 14.7 111.3 66.6 55.7 1.6 7.0 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.1 17.5 18.8 123.2 70.8 60.0 3.2 6.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.0 12.8 17.6 117.0 67.6 59.9 2.8 5.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 11.5 10.3 18.3 123.9 70.5 64.2 2.9 6.0 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 14.6 18.6 17.2 131.6 75.1 62.7 3.9 7.8 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.5 22.4 17.7 117.8 69.5 61.0 6.5 15.5 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 44 56 100 16.0 15.1 18.8 130.4 70.9 65.4 2.5 7.8 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.8 18.8 120.3 69.1 61.3 5.4 7.9 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 10.7 12.0 15.4 109.6 66.3 58.7 1.4 7.9 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.3 14.3 15.1 116.0 70.5 61.7 2.7 5.3 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 12.6 11.7 17.1 117.4 70.0 62.3 2.8 7.3 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.0 9.0 13.1 84.2 50.0 47.9 2.6 9.0 19.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.9 6.6 15.1 99.3 65.2 53.5 1.7 4.4 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 8.2 16.5 114.2 67.6 60.9 2.7 5.0 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 10.0 21.6 18.9 140.9 76.9 62.3 4.9 7.0 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.4 21.9 18.4 111.9 65.5 57.9 3.6 11.3 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.5 21.1 18.4 141.6 77.1 68.0 2.4 6.6 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 20.3 23.9 20.2 110.1 66.4 58.4 7.0 17.8 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.7 10.3 15.4 111.8 64.9 57.8 2.2 4.6 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.1 14.1 18.8 132.8 71.5 63.5 2.9 7.1 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 17.0 16.3 17.9 131.9 73.1 65.1 2.6 8.9 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.8 16.9 112.6 65.9 57.2 2.9 5.6 11.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.6 13.7 17.2 107.5 64.8 57.0 3.7 8.5 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 9.8 14.7 15.6 107.9 65.9 60.2 2.3 7.9 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.1 17.0 111.4 68.4 59.1 2.3 9.0 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 8.5 15.3 17.9 119.5 70.6 58.8 0.7 5.1 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.5 21.0 16.4 96.2 59.3 51.9 10.9 15.1 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 15.0 19.4 16.7 130.6 73.0 63.9 2.3 5.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------