***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 22.2 22.1 21.0 0.2 54.1 55.0 21.2 21.9 22.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.3 20.9 0.1 52.7 53.1 21.6 22.2 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 22.9 22.8 21.2 0.4 56.7 57.3 21.7 22.7 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 14.0 15.4 19.1 0.0 52.2 51.9 14.7 15.4 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 23.3 23.5 19.8 0.4 59.8 58.5 21.6 23.1 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.8 18.4 0.5 60.7 59.3 21.1 22.2 22.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 22.1 21.9 20.8 0.1 53.3 53.4 21.1 21.8 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.1 18.8 0.8 68.2 63.4 11.7 12.5 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 23.0 23.3 20.4 0.6 64.9 60.7 21.7 22.8 23.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 22.5 23.4 19.5 0.8 67.3 63.0 21.1 22.3 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 23.0 23.7 19.7 0.6 63.2 60.9 21.6 22.8 23.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 22.8 23.2 19.5 0.6 64.9 60.5 20.9 22.6 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 23.6 24.0 19.2 0.5 61.0 58.7 22.1 23.4 24.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 23.5 23.7 20.5 0.9 70.1 65.4 21.8 22.7 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.6 19.4 -0.2 45.2 48.0 21.6 22.6 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.3 19.5 0.5 60.5 58.8 22.5 24.0 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 21.7 21.6 20.6 0.2 55.6 54.8 20.9 21.4 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 22.5 22.8 19.1 1.0 72.0 66.0 20.6 21.7 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.4 21.1 0.2 54.6 54.9 21.3 22.0 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 18.8 19.3 17.3 1.1 75.1 67.3 17.6 18.1 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 23.0 23.3 20.9 0.5 60.2 58.5 21.4 22.8 23.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 22.3 23.0 20.8 0.3 58.8 57.1 21.5 21.9 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.7 21.2 0.5 60.7 58.9 21.7 22.2 22.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 22.7 23.2 20.4 0.9 68.4 64.3 21.7 22.5 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 22.3 22.3 19.7 0.3 57.2 56.1 21.1 22.1 22.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 23.6 23.8 18.9 0.3 58.5 56.0 21.5 23.5 23.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 22.4 22.6 20.4 0.3 57.0 56.3 21.2 22.2 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 21.4 22.7 19.4 -0.1 49.2 50.4 21.5 22.7 23.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 18.2 18.5 18.4 1.1 74.9 67.7 16.5 17.2 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.0 21.0 0.1 52.0 53.1 21.2 22.0 22.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------