***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 19.1 20.6 18.5 -0.3 47.1 48.9 19.7 20.7 21.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 21.6 21.1 18.4 -0.3 47.8 48.6 18.6 21.2 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 19.4 20.9 18.5 -0.3 45.3 48.3 19.7 21.1 22.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.7 12.2 16.7 -0.4 42.7 47.7 11.2 13.9 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 21.5 20.9 17.0 -0.3 45.5 48.3 19.5 21.1 22.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 18.7 20.2 15.9 -0.1 48.1 50.5 17.9 20.6 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 21.2 20.7 18.4 -0.2 48.2 49.5 19.0 20.8 21.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.7 16.0 -0.3 47.3 49.6 9.2 11.8 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.5 17.4 -0.3 46.4 48.6 19.7 21.6 22.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.7 16.6 -0.3 47.0 49.4 19.8 21.1 22.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 21.9 21.4 16.8 -0.3 46.0 48.9 20.5 21.6 22.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 21.6 20.8 16.7 -0.4 46.1 48.6 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.7 16.4 -0.4 46.2 48.6 20.0 21.9 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 22.0 21.3 17.6 -0.1 48.9 50.2 19.8 21.5 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 20.8 19.5 16.9 -0.4 42.7 47.6 18.2 20.1 22.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 22.9 22.6 16.6 -0.3 46.2 48.7 20.4 22.7 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 20.9 20.4 18.2 -0.1 50.1 50.1 18.6 20.4 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 20.3 19.7 16.2 -0.1 49.4 50.8 18.8 19.8 21.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 19.4 20.9 18.5 -0.3 46.6 48.3 19.0 21.1 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.2 18.0 14.5 -0.1 52.3 51.2 15.0 17.9 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 19.6 20.9 18.0 -0.3 45.2 48.1 19.6 21.3 21.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 21.7 21.2 18.3 -0.2 48.1 49.3 19.0 21.4 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 19.7 21.1 18.5 -0.3 46.8 48.7 19.5 21.3 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 21.8 21.1 17.5 -0.2 47.7 50.0 19.9 21.3 22.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 20.6 20.0 17.2 -0.2 45.8 49.1 19.2 20.3 21.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 19.5 21.0 16.3 -0.5 43.7 47.7 19.3 21.2 22.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 21.4 21.0 17.9 -0.2 48.3 49.8 19.7 21.1 21.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 21.2 19.6 16.8 -0.4 43.2 47.3 17.5 20.5 22.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.8 15.5 -0.1 51.1 51.4 14.7 16.7 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.7 18.5 -0.3 46.4 48.3 19.0 21.1 21.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------