***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 19.0 21.4 20.8 0.0 50.6 53.3 19.6 21.4 22.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 20.1 21.7 20.5 -0.2 43.1 50.3 20.8 21.9 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 20.0 21.9 20.9 0.1 50.0 53.5 20.5 21.9 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.0 14.1 19.1 0.1 51.9 53.4 13.1 13.9 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 19.8 22.0 19.6 0.3 55.6 55.9 20.8 21.8 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 22.9 21.4 18.5 0.6 60.0 58.3 19.7 20.6 22.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 20.0 21.5 20.4 -0.2 43.5 50.3 20.5 21.9 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 13.1 12.0 18.8 0.7 60.5 60.1 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 19.9 22.1 20.1 0.4 55.6 56.6 20.6 21.9 23.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 19.7 22.5 19.3 0.6 58.4 58.9 20.1 21.8 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 23.8 22.3 19.5 0.5 57.6 58.2 20.6 22.0 22.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 23.2 21.9 19.4 0.5 57.4 58.5 20.0 21.1 23.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 20.6 22.2 19.0 0.4 54.5 57.3 20.7 22.0 24.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.4 20.1 0.5 54.9 57.7 21.2 22.1 23.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 19.2 21.2 19.1 -0.1 47.6 51.4 20.3 21.3 22.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 24.5 22.6 19.2 0.4 55.9 57.1 21.6 22.4 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 19.9 20.8 20.2 -0.1 42.2 50.3 20.2 21.4 21.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 22.0 21.7 18.9 0.8 58.9 60.2 20.1 21.4 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 19.9 21.4 20.7 -0.1 44.5 51.4 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 19.4 18.4 17.2 0.9 64.1 62.2 15.9 17.7 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 19.8 22.0 20.5 0.2 53.3 54.8 20.5 21.8 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 20.6 21.6 20.4 0.0 44.5 51.6 20.3 22.2 22.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 20.4 21.8 20.8 0.1 48.3 53.8 20.4 21.8 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 22.7 22.3 20.0 0.5 55.7 57.9 20.3 22.1 23.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 19.3 21.7 19.5 0.2 55.5 54.7 19.8 21.3 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 23.8 22.1 18.9 0.3 53.8 56.6 20.0 22.0 23.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 19.5 21.7 20.1 0.2 52.5 54.3 20.8 21.6 22.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 19.3 21.7 19.3 0.0 49.5 52.8 20.0 21.8 23.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 18.5 17.3 18.2 0.9 60.7 61.2 15.4 16.9 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 19.8 21.4 20.6 -0.2 44.3 50.8 20.7 21.8 22.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------