***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 23.4 23.4 22.0 0.5 59.8 54.6 21.3 23.0 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.9 21.7 0.2 56.2 51.0 21.6 23.3 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 21.5 24.7 22.3 0.8 66.5 57.5 20.8 23.2 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 16.4 17.0 20.7 0.8 65.7 58.2 15.0 15.8 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 25.8 25.8 21.3 1.3 71.0 62.3 21.4 23.8 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 24.3 24.5 20.3 1.9 74.8 68.0 20.6 22.7 23.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.0 21.6 0.1 53.2 50.2 21.3 22.7 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 14.3 14.5 20.5 1.9 74.8 67.8 11.2 12.9 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 25.3 25.9 21.7 1.4 74.3 63.6 21.1 23.1 24.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 25.1 25.7 20.9 1.7 75.3 66.7 21.0 22.8 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.4 21.2 1.6 73.6 65.3 21.1 23.5 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 24.6 24.8 21.2 1.7 73.2 66.1 20.7 23.0 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 25.6 25.6 20.8 1.6 72.5 65.3 21.6 23.8 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 25.4 26.5 21.6 1.4 72.8 64.4 21.6 22.8 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.8 20.7 0.4 57.9 54.6 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 25.7 26.0 21.1 1.5 72.6 64.7 22.1 24.1 25.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 22.7 22.7 21.3 0.1 53.2 50.2 21.5 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 24.2 25.0 20.5 1.9 76.8 68.8 20.1 21.8 23.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.5 24.1 22.0 0.4 60.8 53.6 21.1 22.7 24.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 20.1 20.7 18.8 2.0 77.8 70.6 16.3 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.5 22.1 1.1 70.9 60.3 21.0 23.5 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 23.7 24.4 21.6 0.3 57.3 53.1 21.3 23.0 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 23.8 24.8 22.2 0.8 67.1 58.0 21.3 23.1 24.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 25.1 25.8 21.6 1.5 73.8 65.4 21.2 22.8 23.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 23.3 24.0 20.8 0.7 65.0 56.6 21.3 22.9 24.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 25.3 24.9 20.7 1.6 70.9 65.7 21.0 23.8 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 23.5 23.7 21.3 0.5 61.5 54.7 21.0 23.0 24.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 23.7 24.4 21.0 0.8 63.7 58.4 22.6 23.1 24.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 19.7 20.6 19.8 2.0 77.8 70.0 15.3 17.4 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.7 21.9 0.3 58.0 52.0 21.2 23.1 24.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------