***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 23.4 23.2 22.8 0.6 56.5 57.4 22.0 23.1 23.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 91 9 100 23.2 24.1 22.9 0.8 60.3 60.9 21.7 22.9 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 89 11 100 23.5 24.3 23.2 1.0 61.2 62.1 22.6 23.2 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 16.9 16.4 19.7 -0.4 45.7 45.8 15.7 16.7 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 24.7 24.7 21.4 0.5 57.5 56.7 23.5 24.6 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 23.6 23.2 19.0 -0.2 45.2 45.3 22.3 23.2 24.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 23.3 23.9 22.9 0.8 60.3 60.6 21.4 23.0 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 92 8 100 13.5 13.6 20.1 0.9 59.3 60.7 12.0 13.3 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 24.3 24.4 22.5 0.9 60.5 60.9 23.3 24.1 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 23.8 24.8 21.1 1.1 61.6 62.3 23.0 23.6 25.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 24.4 24.7 21.4 0.7 58.6 58.1 24.0 24.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 95 5 100 23.8 23.7 20.7 0.5 55.4 56.7 22.9 23.7 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 25.0 25.1 20.7 0.3 53.3 54.0 23.7 24.9 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 25.7 26.7 22.9 1.9 74.6 73.0 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 24.4 23.7 21.0 -0.7 39.4 40.4 23.4 24.1 25.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 94 6 100 25.4 25.5 20.9 0.3 54.1 54.2 24.3 25.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 48 52 100 24.2 23.8 22.7 1.0 65.2 64.9 20.7 22.4 24.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 47 53 100 23.8 24.2 20.7 1.6 69.7 68.3 22.0 22.6 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 23.2 23.8 23.1 1.0 61.9 63.0 21.6 22.8 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 49 51 100 20.3 20.5 18.8 1.5 68.1 68.3 17.9 19.0 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 24.2 24.1 23.0 0.9 58.9 60.4 23.3 24.0 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 25.2 25.2 23.0 1.2 68.1 67.8 21.4 22.9 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 23.3 24.5 23.4 1.3 65.5 66.8 21.9 22.9 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 24.9 25.2 22.4 1.6 70.9 69.5 22.8 23.5 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 23.6 23.5 21.4 0.5 55.2 56.3 22.4 23.4 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 95 5 100 24.9 24.6 19.8 -0.1 47.8 49.7 22.9 24.8 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 90 10 100 23.6 23.8 22.3 0.7 57.8 59.1 22.3 23.4 24.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 24.6 23.7 20.3 -0.6 40.8 42.0 23.1 24.2 25.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 19.8 20.1 20.1 1.8 72.0 70.8 17.3 19.0 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 22.8 23.7 23.0 0.7 57.2 59.2 21.6 22.5 24.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------