***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 11.0 11.4 12.6 0.9 76.0 68.7 9.3 10.1 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 11.1 11.5 12.4 0.9 76.6 69.2 9.1 10.2 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.5 12.4 0.9 77.2 70.0 11.4 12.3 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 8.5 8.2 9.8 0.5 65.0 61.8 7.1 7.7 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 10.4 10.6 10.1 0.8 71.8 67.4 8.5 9.5 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 9.2 9.5 8.6 0.7 71.3 66.3 7.6 8.4 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 11.1 11.5 12.4 0.9 74.5 67.6 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 5.2 5.5 8.9 1.0 76.5 71.7 3.7 4.4 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 11.2 11.4 10.8 1.0 75.8 71.9 9.6 10.4 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 10.9 11.2 9.4 1.0 77.4 73.3 9.0 10.1 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 10.4 10.7 9.9 0.9 74.6 69.8 8.8 9.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 9.1 9.2 9.5 0.8 72.4 68.5 7.6 8.6 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 9.8 9.9 8.9 0.6 66.5 64.0 8.0 9.2 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 11.1 11.5 10.8 1.0 79.9 73.2 9.7 10.2 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.6 10.3 0.2 56.7 56.4 10.0 10.3 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.1 9.4 0.6 66.2 64.5 9.5 10.5 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 11.0 11.5 12.2 1.1 79.6 72.4 9.4 10.3 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 10.0 10.3 8.8 1.1 78.2 74.1 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 10.8 11.3 12.4 1.0 77.2 70.3 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 5.8 6.0 7.5 1.0 79.0 73.6 4.2 5.2 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 10.8 11.2 11.8 0.9 76.5 70.2 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 10.1 10.7 12.2 1.0 78.2 71.8 8.5 9.0 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.9 12.1 1.0 77.9 71.4 8.7 9.5 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 10.5 10.7 10.6 1.0 78.6 73.2 8.8 9.8 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 11.4 11.9 11.0 0.8 74.0 68.0 9.4 10.2 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.5 9.1 0.4 60.6 60.3 8.4 9.2 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 11.4 12.0 11.8 0.9 75.2 68.5 9.6 10.1 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 8.8 9.3 10.0 0.3 58.9 58.2 7.8 8.6 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 8.9 9.3 8.3 1.0 79.0 73.7 7.3 8.0 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 11.3 11.7 12.5 0.9 74.9 68.0 9.5 10.6 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------