***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.10.2014.-12.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 7.5 8.7 10.1 0.1 52.4 52.9 7.2 8.4 10.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.5 9.0 9.9 0.1 52.2 52.8 7.5 8.9 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 9.8 11.5 9.9 0.1 53.9 53.1 10.1 11.2 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.3 6.4 7.5 -0.2 47.8 49.9 5.4 6.5 7.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.4 8.1 7.7 0.0 49.2 51.9 6.6 8.2 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.6 6.3 0.0 47.9 53.2 5.7 7.1 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 7.7 9.2 9.8 0.1 50.8 52.2 7.4 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.8 3.4 6.5 0.0 50.2 52.7 2.7 3.4 4.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.7 8.8 8.2 0.1 50.3 53.0 8.1 8.8 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.4 6.9 0.1 51.7 53.5 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.4 7.4 0.0 48.6 52.9 6.8 7.5 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.2 7.1 -0.2 47.4 50.5 5.5 6.4 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 6.0 6.6 6.4 -0.3 45.8 49.9 5.8 7.2 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.6 9.4 8.4 0.2 54.3 54.6 8.3 9.3 9.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 7.8 8.7 8.0 -0.2 47.6 49.2 7.8 8.8 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.7 7.0 -0.2 46.4 51.0 7.5 9.3 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 7.9 9.7 9.7 0.2 55.4 53.9 8.0 9.3 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 8.0 6.4 0.1 53.0 54.0 6.5 7.6 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 7.6 9.4 9.9 0.1 53.4 53.3 7.9 9.0 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.3 5.2 0.1 49.8 53.4 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 6.6 8.3 9.2 0.1 50.1 53.0 6.9 8.3 9.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 7.2 8.6 9.6 0.1 54.5 53.5 6.9 8.4 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.3 9.2 9.6 0.1 54.0 53.7 7.4 9.1 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.7 8.3 8.2 0.1 54.6 54.2 7.3 8.1 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 7.3 9.2 8.4 0.0 53.2 52.6 7.4 8.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.1 6.9 6.7 -0.5 40.7 46.4 6.3 7.6 9.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 7.2 9.5 9.2 0.1 52.7 52.8 7.4 9.3 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 6.0 7.0 7.7 -0.3 45.9 49.1 6.1 7.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 5.9 6.9 6.0 0.1 50.0 54.5 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 7.9 9.3 10.0 0.1 51.2 52.4 7.8 9.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------