***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.09.2014.-05.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 8.0 10.3 11.8 0.4 58.4 55.3 8.5 10.0 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.8 10.4 11.6 0.4 54.1 56.1 8.6 9.8 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 10.3 12.4 11.5 0.4 57.1 56.3 10.6 11.9 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.9 9.3 0.3 58.8 54.7 6.1 7.3 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.1 9.4 0.5 61.6 57.9 7.1 8.7 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.2 8.1 0.6 64.2 61.3 6.6 8.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 8.4 10.1 11.7 0.4 54.4 56.4 8.4 9.9 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.2 8.2 0.6 60.6 59.5 2.9 3.8 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.3 9.9 0.6 61.5 58.6 8.9 9.9 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.5 8.6 0.6 62.0 59.7 7.9 9.9 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.7 10.2 9.2 0.6 60.4 59.5 7.4 9.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.3 9.0 8.8 0.4 58.8 57.9 6.3 7.8 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.0 8.3 0.5 61.5 59.2 7.4 8.3 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.0 10.0 0.6 63.4 59.9 9.0 10.2 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.8 9.6 0.1 56.7 52.2 8.5 10.4 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.8 8.8 0.5 58.7 58.4 8.8 9.9 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 11.2 10.2 11.5 0.6 59.3 58.6 8.6 10.0 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.4 8.1 0.6 62.7 60.3 7.1 8.6 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.1 10.0 11.5 0.4 55.2 56.2 8.6 9.8 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.4 7.1 0.7 62.9 61.5 3.7 4.5 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 7.8 10.5 10.9 0.5 60.3 56.8 8.2 9.7 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 7.4 9.2 11.4 0.5 58.1 57.6 7.8 8.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 7.7 9.6 11.2 0.4 58.1 56.7 8.5 8.9 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.3 9.8 0.6 63.0 59.6 8.2 9.8 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.8 10.1 0.4 60.1 55.5 8.7 9.7 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.6 8.7 0.3 58.3 56.6 7.4 9.2 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 8.3 10.9 10.9 0.4 58.8 56.1 8.1 10.3 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.1 9.5 0.2 56.1 53.8 6.9 8.7 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 8.8 8.3 7.7 0.6 62.4 61.1 6.8 7.6 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 8.2 10.3 11.7 0.3 53.4 55.4 8.7 10.1 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------