***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.09.2014.-28.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 11.4 11.8 13.8 1.7 77.9 73.4 9.8 10.6 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 12.1 12.4 13.6 1.6 77.8 73.4 9.5 10.8 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 13.8 14.2 13.7 1.8 79.9 75.9 11.9 13.1 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 9.8 10.2 11.5 1.6 77.6 74.3 7.5 8.5 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 11.3 11.9 11.8 2.0 83.0 79.1 8.8 10.2 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 10.2 10.6 10.4 2.0 82.0 79.1 8.0 9.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 12.0 12.2 13.6 1.6 76.5 72.0 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 5.9 7.1 10.6 2.2 86.1 81.8 4.1 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 11.9 13.0 12.4 2.3 86.4 81.2 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 11.9 12.5 11.1 2.3 88.1 83.3 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 11.5 11.9 11.6 2.1 85.7 81.1 8.4 10.4 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 10.8 11.2 11.2 2.0 83.5 80.4 8.0 9.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 11.1 11.6 10.9 2.1 84.4 81.1 8.6 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 12.1 12.9 12.3 2.1 83.4 80.1 9.9 10.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.8 11.7 1.3 73.2 70.5 10.2 10.8 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 12.2 12.9 11.3 2.0 82.4 79.9 10.3 11.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 11.8 12.4 13.5 1.8 80.7 75.1 9.8 10.4 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 10.5 11.7 10.5 2.3 87.8 83.6 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 11.5 11.9 13.7 1.7 79.9 74.9 10.0 10.4 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 6.8 7.5 9.2 2.2 85.2 82.2 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 11.7 12.5 13.2 2.1 82.3 78.1 9.4 10.1 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 10.8 11.6 13.5 1.9 83.1 77.0 9.3 9.6 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 11.2 11.7 13.5 1.8 82.3 76.8 9.4 9.9 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 11.4 12.0 12.1 2.1 84.6 80.6 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 12.5 13.2 12.2 1.7 79.0 74.6 10.1 11.1 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 10.9 11.3 11.1 2.0 80.7 78.4 8.5 10.1 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 12.8 13.3 13.0 1.7 78.2 73.9 10.2 11.4 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.8 11.3 11.7 1.5 75.4 73.2 8.0 9.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 9.5 12.1 9.9 2.1 86.7 82.0 7.3 8.8 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 11.9 12.3 13.7 1.6 77.5 72.9 10.1 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------