***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.09.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.09.2014.-21.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 12.9 13.3 14.7 1.5 78.0 73.8 10.2 11.5 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 12.3 13.0 14.5 1.6 80.8 78.1 9.6 11.0 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 14.9 15.1 14.4 1.5 76.1 74.3 12.1 13.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 9.2 9.3 11.0 0.2 58.4 55.9 7.9 9.1 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 10.6 11.6 11.6 0.5 64.3 61.2 9.7 10.3 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 9.9 9.8 9.6 0.2 53.2 53.3 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 12.7 13.3 14.4 1.4 79.0 75.4 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.4 10.5 1.1 72.9 71.3 4.2 5.6 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.5 12.6 1.0 69.1 68.5 10.2 11.2 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 12.4 12.5 11.2 1.2 73.4 71.6 9.8 11.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.5 11.5 0.8 68.4 65.9 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 10.3 10.2 10.9 0.9 68.3 67.2 9.1 9.5 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.6 10.0 0.1 52.1 51.5 9.2 9.5 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 12.5 12.6 12.6 1.2 76.1 71.8 10.6 11.9 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 12.2 12.0 12.0 -0.2 48.8 48.7 10.7 12.0 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.8 10.6 0.2 56.3 54.0 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 12.8 13.2 14.1 1.8 82.2 80.0 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.2 10.3 1.2 74.4 71.8 9.0 10.4 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 12.6 13.1 14.4 1.6 80.9 78.0 10.4 11.3 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 7.5 7.6 8.5 1.2 75.9 73.3 5.2 6.2 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 12.1 12.4 13.8 1.1 72.3 70.1 10.0 10.8 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 12 88 100 12.2 12.8 14.0 1.6 82.3 78.8 9.2 10.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 12.0 12.4 14.2 1.5 79.9 76.7 9.6 11.1 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 12.1 12.5 12.4 1.2 75.8 72.5 10.1 11.2 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 12.7 12.8 13.2 1.1 72.7 69.5 10.1 11.8 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 11.0 10.4 9.7 -0.1 46.9 48.2 9.3 10.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 12.8 13.2 13.9 1.3 75.0 71.6 9.4 11.5 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 10.2 9.9 11.2 -0.1 50.7 49.3 9.3 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 10.1 10.4 9.7 1.2 75.7 72.9 8.1 9.3 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 12.9 13.3 14.6 1.5 78.4 75.4 10.4 11.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------