***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 33.6 36.8 33.8 69.2 38.9 36.5 34.3 52.3 61.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 31.4 35.1 33.3 69.4 35.5 35.7 33.3 48.6 59.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 56.9 41.1 34.3 69.2 38.0 36.7 37.9 51.7 65.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 47.5 64.5 40.2 72.8 41.8 39.6 44.0 71.0 82.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 49.5 38.1 36.1 72.4 40.2 38.3 35.2 42.3 63.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 26.7 33.4 41.7 76.6 39.1 38.5 29.2 42.8 53.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 29.8 40.1 34.0 71.1 38.5 37.0 36.5 45.6 56.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 52.1 59.0 41.3 71.5 36.2 36.8 52.9 73.6 80.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 52.0 43.0 36.9 72.7 39.2 38.3 36.7 47.2 62.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 38.3 42.8 41.4 71.5 36.2 36.9 42.1 52.1 60.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 32.7 34.0 34.7 70.0 37.0 36.8 29.0 47.6 59.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 28.2 29.2 34.9 70.3 37.1 36.8 26.5 44.6 56.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 33.1 40.0 38.2 73.5 39.9 38.0 37.8 43.8 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 45.0 58.8 47.0 74.5 37.6 36.7 52.9 65.8 79.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 28.9 37.6 38.2 71.1 42.8 40.0 31.3 43.3 57.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 27.3 35.9 36.0 71.7 38.4 37.5 32.7 40.5 48.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 30.2 33.0 34.3 70.6 37.0 36.0 32.1 42.5 51.0 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 42.4 44.3 46.8 75.2 37.1 38.0 42.7 57.1 71.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 30.4 42.7 33.6 69.0 35.1 35.2 42.1 47.2 54.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 47.0 49.1 54.4 79.0 39.3 39.5 44.9 56.8 79.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 38.5 37.5 35.3 71.1 40.9 37.7 35.3 50.2 64.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 31.2 34.9 34.5 67.7 33.9 34.5 34.6 49.9 55.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 34.0 40.6 35.5 70.5 36.3 35.4 39.3 49.8 55.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 42.5 46.3 42.4 73.0 37.3 37.4 40.7 61.1 73.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 62.9 46.9 38.3 71.0 39.3 37.5 43.3 58.3 64.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 30.7 37.3 37.4 72.1 38.4 37.5 33.3 44.6 59.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 36.2 46.4 35.6 69.1 38.1 36.0 35.3 54.0 61.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 30.9 41.2 38.4 72.5 41.1 39.6 29.9 46.5 56.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 55.1 66.8 49.2 76.4 37.0 38.0 63.0 76.9 97.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 27.4 38.1 33.1 68.6 36.0 35.9 34.1 42.5 50.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------