***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.8 5.9 8.3 76.5 56.4 46.3 1.4 5.4 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.0 7.8 69.2 54.1 43.8 3.0 9.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.3 8.6 76.5 58.1 46.7 2.3 7.1 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.5 13.2 9.4 83.5 59.8 48.2 3.3 11.3 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.6 9.3 85.6 61.1 48.5 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.8 8.3 9.4 82.5 58.9 45.5 2.8 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.2 7.6 68.7 54.1 43.7 1.9 10.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.7 12.1 9.9 79.7 56.7 47.7 6.3 10.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.4 10.0 9.3 82.1 59.1 48.4 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.9 10.1 81.6 57.7 48.3 3.0 8.6 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.9 7.0 8.6 82.3 60.4 48.2 1.6 3.9 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.5 6.8 8.2 77.4 57.5 47.1 1.1 3.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.3 5.8 8.7 78.6 56.7 46.1 1.7 4.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.5 14.5 11.8 82.7 61.7 47.2 3.1 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.8 5.0 7.8 72.6 60.4 46.2 0.9 3.7 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.3 6.1 8.7 82.0 59.7 47.5 1.2 2.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.4 8.5 71.3 55.2 44.2 0.5 7.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.4 13.2 11.6 86.6 58.1 48.8 6.4 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.2 8.1 71.3 54.5 44.2 2.0 6.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 14.5 13.2 83.8 58.4 48.2 5.5 10.9 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.4 8.6 79.0 59.3 48.0 3.3 8.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.1 10.1 8.9 72.3 55.7 43.9 0.3 8.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.5 8.8 76.3 57.6 44.9 2.0 7.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.0 11.9 10.8 83.0 59.6 47.6 3.4 5.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.2 11.5 9.1 79.9 57.8 47.2 4.8 10.5 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.9 6.8 8.1 72.1 56.6 46.2 1.0 5.8 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.9 8.5 76.7 56.6 45.9 2.0 4.4 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.3 6.7 8.6 80.6 60.5 47.4 0.4 2.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.0 20.3 12.4 88.3 58.3 48.7 7.2 15.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.9 9.3 7.9 71.0 54.7 44.3 1.8 9.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------