***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.5 11.8 108.5 66.0 56.2 0.9 7.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.3 12.2 11.6 105.4 64.7 55.0 0.9 5.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.2 12.1 11.8 106.4 67.6 56.2 3.3 7.5 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 27.7 23.5 13.7 114.8 70.9 59.3 6.1 14.5 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.4 19.6 12.1 109.2 69.6 57.6 5.8 10.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.0 25.0 13.2 114.3 70.3 55.3 1.8 7.4 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.6 12.5 11.7 105.1 65.6 55.7 0.7 5.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 19.8 22.6 13.3 111.7 68.6 55.6 6.0 16.3 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 12.5 13.3 12.9 111.9 68.7 57.5 4.7 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 16.7 21.0 13.9 111.0 68.4 56.4 6.9 14.3 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 16.4 22.5 11.2 106.5 68.1 56.3 3.6 12.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.5 16.8 11.2 111.3 69.1 56.9 2.5 6.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.0 18.7 12.8 115.0 68.4 57.0 1.9 7.3 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.4 21.4 15.4 108.8 66.2 54.8 7.6 11.0 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.0 19.6 13.0 109.6 70.8 57.2 1.9 6.1 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.8 16.3 11.5 108.1 68.0 56.3 1.4 7.4 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.4 10.7 12.2 107.3 65.4 54.9 0.4 3.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 18.4 15.6 112.2 68.2 55.6 5.3 10.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.7 11.8 107.9 65.1 56.0 3.2 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 18.1 18.7 123.7 69.6 56.7 5.5 11.5 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.3 18.7 12.2 109.7 66.5 56.7 4.2 10.3 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.3 11.5 12.6 107.3 67.6 55.8 0.9 5.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.1 12.2 12.2 109.5 64.2 56.8 4.3 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.3 16.8 14.0 104.7 68.2 55.0 3.9 10.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.7 21.7 13.2 110.1 64.8 57.0 1.6 9.1 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.3 16.8 12.5 112.0 68.3 55.8 1.4 5.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.9 12.2 108.0 64.2 56.3 1.5 5.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 14.7 26.0 12.9 113.0 70.4 58.0 4.4 9.8 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.3 29.4 16.2 113.5 67.9 55.5 8.0 15.3 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.2 10.3 11.4 103.6 65.7 55.4 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------