***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.4 6.7 9.5 75.9 56.0 45.1 2.4 5.8 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 9.1 10.3 95.5 63.0 46.1 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.6 7.9 9.5 75.6 56.5 45.4 3.5 6.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.2 11.7 81.8 62.1 48.7 2.4 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.3 5.5 10.2 76.1 56.8 46.6 1.6 4.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 1.5 4.1 13.5 87.4 56.0 49.1 0.8 3.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 1.3 6.3 10.5 97.6 62.2 45.4 2.1 2.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.9 11.2 12.4 83.1 58.5 50.0 4.5 9.5 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.5 4.5 10.1 76.6 56.5 46.5 1.7 3.2 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.4 8.7 11.7 78.1 56.1 48.0 1.1 6.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.2 10.6 75.4 56.7 47.1 1.0 3.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.4 10.9 82.2 59.3 49.7 1.0 4.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.1 11.5 80.8 56.5 49.8 1.2 3.7 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.0 13.1 84.0 54.9 47.2 1.3 4.9 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.3 10.2 12.3 84.9 65.7 48.4 1.1 2.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.4 4.7 11.1 79.0 57.0 49.1 1.8 2.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 1.6 7.4 10.4 101.2 66.1 48.4 0.9 3.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.8 9.3 12.7 79.5 55.5 47.1 2.2 5.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.3 9.9 87.8 59.2 45.3 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 11.8 10.0 14.9 83.8 56.1 49.2 3.2 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.1 7.2 9.5 72.0 55.6 43.1 2.2 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.3 10.0 92.0 62.6 47.4 0.6 5.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.8 9.9 81.2 56.2 44.5 2.7 4.6 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.9 6.3 11.4 76.7 53.9 45.7 1.8 5.0 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.6 10.6 73.5 56.2 44.2 2.6 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.5 5.2 12.1 81.4 57.2 47.2 1.0 3.2 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.6 10.1 75.3 57.0 43.6 3.6 5.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.9 7.2 11.7 82.5 63.0 49.5 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.8 10.2 13.4 80.9 54.8 47.4 4.2 8.9 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.6 5.5 10.0 87.7 59.9 44.5 1.1 4.9 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------