***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 2.6 2.5 4.3 29.3 30.2 22.9 2.6 10.4 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 1.9 2.9 3.5 23.9 28.1 20.5 4.0 9.2 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 1.4 1.5 4.3 29.7 29.7 21.8 1.6 7.6 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 2.0 3.0 5.4 30.5 34.9 23.8 2.8 8.8 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 2.1 2.4 4.5 30.9 32.1 22.5 2.8 8.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 2.3 4.0 5.6 35.0 37.9 27.3 2.9 7.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 1.8 3.3 4.1 28.0 32.2 22.6 3.4 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 4.7 4.5 5.7 30.5 30.4 23.0 7.7 15.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 82 18 0 100 2.2 1.3 4.7 31.6 28.1 21.2 3.4 11.1 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 2.4 4.9 5.6 31.1 28.3 21.9 6.6 10.5 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 3.1 2.6 4.4 30.0 34.2 23.7 2.3 11.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.1 2.8 4.5 29.1 33.0 24.0 2.8 10.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 2.4 3.2 5.2 33.7 38.9 26.4 2.4 7.8 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 2.1 2.2 6.7 35.1 30.6 21.5 3.6 10.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 1.3 4.0 5.0 30.6 44.1 26.6 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 1.5 2.9 4.8 32.0 37.7 25.2 2.6 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 1.4 1.4 3.3 21.7 27.3 19.7 1.9 7.9 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 3.9 3.3 7.0 36.4 26.6 22.3 6.1 15.1 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 1.7 2.5 3.7 24.9 28.3 20.2 3.7 7.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 5.9 6.7 7.5 37.4 29.0 24.8 8.0 19.5 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 1.9 2.3 5.0 34.8 31.1 22.7 2.6 9.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 2.0 0.9 3.0 18.4 26.0 18.0 2.7 9.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 2.5 1.5 4.6 29.6 30.9 21.1 2.1 10.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 2.2 1.7 6.2 36.7 29.2 22.4 4.1 9.8 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 3.0 4.8 5.4 33.3 33.2 23.0 4.7 12.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.2 4.3 4.7 32.1 39.0 29.3 2.3 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 2.3 2.3 4.8 30.6 32.7 23.2 2.3 9.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 2.0 2.5 5.2 31.3 39.9 25.4 1.2 7.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 5.0 10.9 7.2 36.7 27.3 22.9 13.1 18.0 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 2.2 5.3 3.7 25.4 30.7 21.2 6.0 8.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------