***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 23.0 23.3 23.0 1.3 73.1 66.5 21.2 22.3 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 23.2 23.4 22.9 1.2 70.5 65.0 21.7 22.4 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 23.0 23.6 23.1 1.0 67.4 62.7 21.8 22.8 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.4 20.2 1.0 66.9 63.0 14.9 15.7 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 23.6 23.8 21.1 0.7 61.4 58.2 22.0 23.5 23.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.8 19.2 0.5 58.5 55.8 21.5 22.2 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 23.0 23.2 23.0 1.4 74.2 67.8 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.0 19.7 0.6 59.8 57.0 11.6 12.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 23.1 23.6 21.8 0.8 62.6 59.4 22.2 22.9 23.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 22.6 23.4 20.6 0.9 64.2 60.4 21.4 22.3 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.6 21.3 0.5 58.6 55.8 22.0 23.1 23.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.2 20.6 0.4 55.6 54.1 21.3 22.7 23.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.7 20.5 0.3 53.7 52.7 22.3 23.5 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 23.8 24.1 22.0 1.3 73.9 65.9 21.8 22.9 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 23.0 23.4 21.7 0.9 65.8 61.4 21.9 22.8 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.3 20.8 0.5 58.6 55.4 22.8 24.1 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 22.5 22.7 22.7 1.4 74.1 68.1 21.1 21.6 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.7 20.1 1.0 65.7 61.5 20.8 21.8 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 23.0 23.2 23.0 1.1 70.0 64.3 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.7 17.8 0.6 60.4 58.0 17.8 18.1 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 23.3 23.6 22.6 1.0 66.6 62.0 21.6 23.2 23.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 23.4 23.8 22.9 1.6 75.6 69.4 21.5 22.2 23.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 23.3 23.3 23.2 1.2 70.5 64.5 21.6 22.5 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 22.9 23.5 21.8 1.1 68.5 63.1 21.6 22.7 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 22.9 23.1 21.4 1.0 67.3 63.2 21.4 22.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.6 23.9 20.1 0.4 58.3 54.5 22.0 23.4 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 23.1 23.3 22.4 1.3 72.8 66.9 21.3 22.4 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 23.0 23.6 20.9 1.0 65.8 61.7 22.0 22.7 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.7 18.1 19.2 0.8 62.0 59.3 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 23.0 23.1 23.0 1.2 70.3 65.0 21.2 22.2 23.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------