***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 18.8 20.7 20.2 0.0 49.7 50.2 20.3 20.7 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 19.0 20.9 20.0 0.0 50.1 50.1 20.2 20.9 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 19.2 20.9 20.5 -0.1 48.1 49.2 20.2 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.5 13.3 18.1 0.1 49.9 50.6 11.8 13.4 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 19.3 21.3 18.7 -0.2 46.5 48.0 19.7 21.5 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 18.8 20.3 17.3 0.0 47.5 49.2 18.9 20.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 18.6 20.7 20.1 0.2 52.1 51.4 19.6 20.6 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.7 17.8 -0.2 45.3 48.2 9.5 11.5 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 19.2 21.0 19.2 -0.2 46.8 48.6 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 18.8 20.7 18.4 -0.1 46.5 49.2 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 19.2 21.3 18.8 -0.3 45.0 47.5 19.8 21.8 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 21.6 20.4 18.6 -0.4 44.4 47.1 19.2 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.3 21.1 17.9 -0.4 43.6 47.1 20.5 21.7 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 19.3 21.2 19.1 0.0 48.0 49.7 19.9 21.4 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 18.4 20.4 18.8 0.2 49.6 51.4 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 20.4 22.2 18.5 -0.2 45.9 48.0 20.8 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 18.3 20.3 19.8 0.2 52.4 51.6 19.7 20.2 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 18.3 19.6 18.0 -0.1 45.6 49.3 18.9 20.0 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 18.8 20.8 20.2 -0.1 49.4 49.7 20.1 20.8 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 15.5 17.0 15.7 -0.2 43.3 47.7 14.8 17.8 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 19.1 21.0 19.8 -0.1 47.7 49.0 19.7 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 19.3 21.1 19.9 0.2 52.7 51.7 19.9 20.8 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 19.4 21.1 20.4 -0.1 49.3 49.7 20.2 21.1 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 19.0 21.0 19.2 0.0 46.9 49.6 19.4 21.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 18.9 20.7 18.6 0.0 49.1 49.7 19.5 20.7 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 21.8 20.5 18.0 -0.3 44.0 47.5 20.0 21.2 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 19.2 21.0 19.6 0.1 50.5 50.6 20.4 21.0 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 18.2 20.3 18.5 0.2 49.6 51.0 18.1 20.4 22.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 14.3 16.1 17.1 -0.2 44.6 48.1 14.4 16.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 18.7 20.8 20.1 0.0 49.8 50.0 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------