***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 25.0 28.1 27.2 3.8 93.4 90.7 22.3 23.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 26.0 27.9 27.1 3.7 91.3 88.8 22.0 23.6 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 25.9 26.7 26.7 3.1 87.5 84.0 22.2 24.5 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 19.0 19.8 22.9 2.7 82.7 82.9 15.5 16.6 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 26.0 26.3 24.3 2.2 77.9 77.3 23.1 24.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 25.1 24.6 21.4 1.0 66.3 65.1 22.3 23.6 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 25.8 27.7 27.2 4.1 93.8 91.2 21.6 23.3 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 14.9 14.6 21.9 1.5 71.6 70.1 12.2 13.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 25.4 26.0 25.2 2.2 81.0 78.3 22.9 24.7 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 25.6 26.0 23.2 2.0 78.2 75.7 22.8 24.3 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 25.7 25.6 24.5 1.7 72.3 71.2 23.4 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 25.3 25.1 23.0 1.3 67.1 67.1 22.3 23.9 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 26.5 25.9 23.8 1.2 64.5 64.9 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 26.0 27.5 25.9 3.5 89.2 86.4 22.6 23.5 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 26.0 26.3 25.9 2.6 78.3 79.4 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 27.0 26.3 23.8 1.5 69.3 68.8 24.3 25.3 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 25.3 27.0 26.9 4.2 94.0 91.5 21.4 22.6 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 24.2 24.7 22.5 2.2 79.5 77.3 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 25.9 27.7 27.1 3.6 89.5 87.4 22.2 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 20.8 20.9 20.3 1.7 73.6 72.3 17.8 19.7 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 25.6 26.5 26.3 2.9 87.8 83.8 22.9 24.6 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 26.1 28.3 27.3 4.5 94.2 92.8 21.3 23.5 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 26.0 27.1 27.1 3.5 87.0 85.5 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 25.4 26.1 25.2 2.8 84.8 81.6 22.7 23.9 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 25.3 26.2 25.4 3.1 87.5 86.0 22.5 24.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 26.4 26.3 22.8 1.5 71.9 69.3 23.0 24.8 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 25.2 28.1 26.5 3.8 94.2 90.9 22.5 24.0 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 26.3 26.7 24.0 2.3 77.6 78.3 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 20.1 20.3 21.8 2.0 77.9 75.5 16.9 19.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 25.8 27.1 27.1 3.7 90.9 88.3 21.9 23.5 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------