***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.5 11.0 13.3 0.8 69.1 63.7 9.3 10.2 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.4 12.9 0.8 71.2 65.6 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.1 13.2 0.7 67.1 62.8 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.7 10.4 0.6 68.9 62.6 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.4 10.8 0.5 64.4 59.5 8.6 9.5 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.8 8.6 0.4 61.3 57.5 7.6 8.5 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 11.1 11.5 13.1 0.9 72.5 67.4 9.6 10.3 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.5 8.9 0.5 68.1 61.8 3.8 4.6 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.3 11.0 0.5 64.4 59.6 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.4 11.0 9.6 0.6 69.5 62.9 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.2 10.3 0.4 63.1 58.5 8.9 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.8 9.1 9.5 0.4 65.8 59.2 7.7 8.7 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 8.3 9.4 8.9 0.2 58.7 54.2 8.1 9.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.6 11.4 11.1 0.7 71.5 64.5 9.7 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.1 11.7 0.5 66.4 60.6 10.1 10.4 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.8 11.2 9.6 0.3 63.8 57.1 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 11.0 11.3 12.7 1.0 74.1 68.0 9.7 10.3 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 9.8 10.0 8.9 0.6 70.2 63.9 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 10.8 11.2 13.0 0.8 70.9 65.7 9.4 10.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.6 7.2 0.5 66.1 62.0 4.5 5.2 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.8 12.3 0.6 65.7 60.8 9.1 9.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 10.2 10.8 12.9 1.1 77.8 69.9 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 10.5 10.7 13.0 0.8 69.8 65.5 8.9 9.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.5 10.8 0.6 69.9 63.6 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.4 12.1 0.6 64.1 60.4 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.0 8.7 0.4 65.2 58.6 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.9 12.7 0.7 68.0 62.8 9.7 10.6 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.7 10.6 0.5 66.7 61.0 7.9 8.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.0 8.4 0.6 68.4 62.9 7.3 8.2 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 11.4 11.5 13.2 0.8 70.7 64.9 9.5 10.8 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------