***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2020.-11.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.5 11.0 -0.1 48.6 49.1 7.9 8.6 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.5 9.4 10.6 -0.1 48.5 49.4 7.8 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.3 11.0 -0.2 45.9 48.3 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.2 6.0 8.0 -0.3 43.0 45.3 5.4 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.9 7.6 8.3 -0.4 40.8 45.0 6.2 8.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.8 6.2 6.8 -0.2 41.0 45.5 5.6 6.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 7.6 9.3 10.8 0.1 51.1 50.9 8.0 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.3 6.6 -0.4 39.5 44.1 3.1 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.1 8.8 8.7 -0.3 42.4 45.6 8.1 9.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 7.4 8.3 7.3 -0.3 40.8 45.0 7.6 8.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.0 7.3 7.8 -0.4 40.3 44.1 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.8 6.2 7.1 -0.4 40.0 43.7 5.8 6.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 6.3 6.4 6.6 -0.4 40.5 43.9 6.0 7.4 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.9 9.3 8.9 -0.1 46.2 48.7 8.3 9.3 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 8.0 8.6 9.1 -0.3 43.1 44.9 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.9 7.9 7.2 -0.4 40.4 44.3 7.7 9.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 7.6 9.2 10.5 0.1 49.9 51.0 8.4 9.2 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 6.0 7.4 6.6 -0.3 39.8 45.8 6.4 7.7 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 7.6 9.2 10.6 -0.1 48.1 48.8 8.0 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.5 2.8 5.0 -0.3 39.2 45.0 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.1 8.0 10.1 -0.2 44.6 47.0 7.2 8.2 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 6.8 8.6 10.4 0.0 50.4 50.9 7.2 8.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.1 10.6 -0.1 48.3 48.8 7.7 9.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.3 8.2 8.4 -0.2 44.2 47.3 7.3 8.5 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.0 8.9 9.6 -0.2 45.5 47.2 7.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.6 7.2 6.6 -0.2 41.5 45.2 6.5 7.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.9 9.5 10.5 0.0 49.2 49.2 7.5 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.2 6.9 8.2 -0.3 43.1 45.3 6.5 7.5 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.7 6.2 -0.3 38.7 45.4 6.6 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 8.1 9.6 10.8 -0.1 47.8 49.3 7.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------