***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2020.-04.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 11.1 11.3 13.0 1.0 68.5 62.1 8.6 9.6 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.4 12.5 0.9 67.7 60.9 8.5 10.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.7 12.9 0.9 67.7 61.6 10.4 12.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 8.9 8.5 9.9 0.8 65.3 61.0 5.9 7.5 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 10.3 10.4 10.1 0.7 64.8 61.1 7.4 8.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 9.4 8.7 8.4 0.7 63.1 60.8 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 11.4 11.6 12.6 1.0 67.2 61.1 8.4 9.9 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 5.0 4.6 8.4 0.6 62.0 60.6 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.0 10.4 0.8 65.5 62.0 8.8 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 10.8 10.5 9.0 0.8 64.8 61.8 8.2 9.7 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 10.4 10.4 9.5 0.6 63.3 60.2 8.1 9.1 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 9.1 8.8 8.9 0.7 63.4 60.6 6.8 8.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.3 8.4 0.7 64.5 61.1 7.7 8.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.5 10.7 1.0 68.7 63.5 8.9 10.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 8.7 11.0 10.9 0.6 62.0 58.1 8.7 10.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 11.2 11.2 9.0 0.7 64.4 61.2 8.9 9.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 11.4 11.4 12.3 1.0 68.0 61.4 8.1 10.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 10.0 9.6 8.3 0.8 66.7 62.7 7.0 8.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 11.4 11.1 12.6 0.9 68.0 61.5 8.4 9.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 6.0 5.4 6.6 0.8 65.3 61.9 3.8 4.8 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 11.0 10.7 11.9 0.9 67.6 62.1 8.5 9.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 10.4 10.7 12.3 1.0 69.2 62.9 8.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.9 12.5 1.0 69.3 62.8 8.0 9.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 10.7 10.5 10.2 0.8 67.8 62.5 8.5 9.6 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 11.4 11.3 11.5 0.9 65.1 61.1 8.4 9.8 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 9.6 9.7 8.3 0.8 65.0 61.6 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 12.3 12.0 12.3 1.0 67.6 61.8 7.9 10.4 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 9.6 9.1 10.0 0.7 64.8 60.4 7.1 8.1 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 8.9 8.6 7.8 0.8 64.5 61.5 6.5 7.7 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.1 12.8 0.9 67.9 61.2 8.9 10.0 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------