***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2020.-27.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9.9 11.0 12.7 -0.1 49.9 49.3 10.1 11.0 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.9 12.3 -0.1 47.3 48.9 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 11.7 12.9 12.8 -0.2 46.0 48.3 12.5 13.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 7.0 8.1 9.9 -0.2 46.0 46.9 7.5 8.3 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 8.1 9.9 10.5 -0.3 44.8 47.3 9.3 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.6 9.1 8.4 -0.1 46.6 48.4 7.9 9.1 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 10.2 11.1 12.4 -0.1 48.9 48.9 10.2 11.2 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.6 4.6 8.7 0.0 46.6 50.5 4.2 4.8 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 9.0 10.7 10.7 -0.2 44.3 48.0 9.7 10.9 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 9.3 10.3 9.3 -0.1 45.9 49.7 9.5 10.5 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 8.6 10.3 10.2 -0.3 42.4 46.8 9.3 10.5 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 8.0 9.3 9.5 -0.1 47.3 49.9 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 8.3 10.0 9.1 -0.1 48.7 49.2 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.7 10.8 0.1 47.8 51.7 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 10.0 11.1 11.5 -0.3 44.8 46.1 10.1 11.3 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 9.9 11.2 9.5 -0.2 45.3 47.4 10.4 11.2 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 10.0 11.0 12.0 -0.1 47.3 48.8 10.2 11.1 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.6 8.7 0.0 45.2 51.0 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 10.0 10.9 12.4 -0.1 48.0 49.4 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 6.3 7.2 0.2 49.0 53.5 5.1 6.3 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 9.1 10.4 11.9 -0.2 46.1 48.0 9.3 11.0 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.2 12.3 0.1 52.0 51.5 9.4 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 9.5 10.3 12.5 0.0 48.9 49.8 9.5 10.3 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 9.4 10.2 10.6 -0.1 45.0 49.8 9.4 10.9 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 10.0 11.4 11.7 -0.3 46.8 47.7 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 8.5 9.9 8.9 0.1 51.0 52.6 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 9.7 11.4 12.2 -0.2 48.4 48.8 10.4 11.6 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 7.6 9.5 10.2 -0.2 45.7 46.4 8.3 9.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.3 8.6 8.2 0.1 46.7 52.0 7.8 8.6 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.1 12.6 -0.1 48.1 49.0 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------