***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2020.-20.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 13.5 14.6 16.4 2.2 86.5 83.9 10.6 11.9 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 13.1 13.9 16.2 2.6 90.3 87.7 10.2 10.7 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 15.0 15.9 16.3 2.1 86.1 83.5 11.9 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 10.4 11.1 13.5 2.1 86.9 85.5 8.0 8.7 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 12.4 12.8 14.2 1.8 82.6 80.4 9.8 10.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.0 10.9 1.1 70.3 72.0 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 13.0 14.8 16.4 2.8 92.1 89.6 10.0 11.5 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 6.9 7.8 11.8 1.9 86.0 82.9 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 13.0 13.4 14.1 1.6 77.8 76.7 10.4 11.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 12.9 13.4 12.7 2.0 86.6 83.9 10.1 11.4 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 12.0 12.4 13.7 1.7 81.0 78.9 10.0 11.0 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 10.8 11.1 12.6 1.6 80.7 79.1 8.4 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 10.5 10.8 11.6 0.6 63.9 61.9 9.3 10.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 13.2 13.8 14.0 1.9 83.9 81.8 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 13.6 13.9 15.4 1.9 83.4 83.2 11.1 12.2 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 13.1 13.4 12.8 1.2 74.8 73.2 9.9 11.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 13.1 14.5 16.1 2.9 93.5 90.5 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 11.7 12.6 12.1 2.0 87.1 84.7 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 13.1 14.1 16.3 2.6 89.5 87.4 10.3 11.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 7.6 8.0 10.0 1.5 78.9 77.8 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 12.9 13.4 15.3 1.8 81.7 79.9 10.2 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 12.4 13.9 16.5 3.0 93.5 91.5 9.0 10.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 12.6 13.3 16.3 2.5 87.3 86.1 9.4 10.7 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 12.6 13.3 14.1 2.0 86.7 84.1 9.9 11.1 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 18 82 100 13.2 13.7 15.4 1.9 81.8 79.8 9.9 12.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 46 54 100 11.4 11.4 11.2 0.9 67.0 67.4 9.2 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 13.8 14.9 15.8 2.1 84.6 82.0 9.9 11.8 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 11.7 12.0 13.8 1.8 82.8 81.9 9.2 9.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 10.6 11.2 11.2 1.8 83.9 82.2 7.9 9.7 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 13.5 14.7 16.5 2.5 88.5 86.8 10.5 11.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------