***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 56.2 51.7 38.7 90.7 49.6 47.1 34.3 52.3 61.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 32.3 50.5 41.1 92.5 53.4 47.0 33.3 48.6 59.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 56.9 55.3 39.9 90.3 52.6 47.3 37.9 51.7 65.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 46.6 69.4 44.4 85.9 45.6 44.3 44.0 71.0 82.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 48.9 56.6 51.1 101.5 55.5 51.8 35.2 42.3 63.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 48.1 43.5 56.4 97.3 51.3 49.5 29.2 42.8 53.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 31.4 45.8 39.8 89.2 50.5 45.5 36.5 45.6 56.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 55.0 77.6 52.4 99.6 55.9 51.3 52.9 73.6 80.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 52.0 47.5 43.8 89.5 50.8 47.0 36.7 47.2 62.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 56.4 58.4 51.9 96.6 54.9 49.9 42.1 52.1 60.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 34.0 50.3 44.9 99.8 55.0 50.4 29.0 47.6 59.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 29.6 47.8 42.4 95.9 53.6 48.7 26.5 44.6 56.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 50.8 46.3 49.2 98.3 52.9 49.5 37.8 43.8 52.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 46.4 64.9 49.5 87.5 48.3 44.8 52.9 65.8 79.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 30.0 45.9 48.2 93.6 53.9 47.2 31.3 43.3 57.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 28.4 41.6 45.0 96.2 54.0 48.0 32.7 40.5 48.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 30.2 44.0 39.6 89.4 52.4 44.9 32.1 42.5 51.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 62.7 61.7 57.6 96.0 56.1 49.9 42.7 57.1 71.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 30.9 48.6 40.5 91.5 53.1 46.6 42.1 47.2 54.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 63.3 59.5 66.9 96.1 53.4 49.8 44.9 56.8 79.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 56.4 54.9 40.0 90.0 51.3 47.1 35.3 50.2 64.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 31.5 49.8 39.4 85.2 49.2 43.3 34.6 49.9 55.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 35.6 51.2 40.7 89.8 51.5 45.9 39.3 49.8 55.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 65.4 64.4 50.2 93.5 55.8 48.3 40.7 61.1 73.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 62.7 59.9 52.2 101.0 55.3 51.4 43.3 58.3 64.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 29.8 45.3 45.2 96.9 54.7 48.4 33.3 44.6 59.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 57.4 56.4 46.1 94.5 52.0 48.4 35.3 54.0 61.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 31.2 46.5 46.1 90.7 50.0 46.3 29.9 46.5 56.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 88.4 83.2 59.7 94.1 53.3 48.8 63.0 76.9 97.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 28.5 44.0 41.4 93.3 52.2 47.9 34.1 42.5 50.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------