***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.1 6.2 8.1 79.1 62.1 45.1 1.4 5.4 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 3.3 12.8 9.4 86.7 58.9 43.6 3.0 9.0 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.2 10.7 8.3 78.3 59.9 43.6 2.3 7.1 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.5 15.7 10.9 98.7 68.7 46.3 3.3 11.3 14.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 2.3 8.1 10.1 95.5 65.6 48.0 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.7 12.7 104.9 61.8 48.8 2.8 5.9 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.0 13.0 9.4 86.9 57.7 42.8 1.9 10.0 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.2 14.0 11.4 94.4 62.8 46.6 6.3 10.6 14.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.9 12.1 9.3 87.1 63.6 46.9 2.3 8.7 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.7 10.3 10.8 89.7 62.3 46.4 3.0 8.6 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.8 8.7 9.4 95.5 65.1 47.7 1.6 3.9 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 1.3 14.5 9.7 99.8 66.5 47.4 1.1 3.1 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.1 6.4 10.4 99.3 62.7 48.4 1.7 4.9 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.5 11.1 10.2 75.0 54.8 43.4 3.1 8.8 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.6 12.8 11.3 99.3 68.5 47.3 0.9 3.7 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 1.1 7.2 9.8 98.7 62.8 47.9 1.2 2.7 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.9 9.7 9.3 86.3 58.2 42.8 0.5 7.9 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.4 14.0 12.0 86.2 59.8 45.4 6.4 10.4 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.5 8.6 8.9 82.4 57.6 43.3 2.0 6.6 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.8 14.3 14.7 84.6 56.4 44.2 5.5 10.9 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.3 12.4 8.3 84.2 62.6 47.1 3.3 8.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.3 9.4 8.9 78.2 53.7 42.3 0.3 8.4 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.4 8.3 76.7 54.7 43.6 2.0 7.3 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.8 11.7 10.2 80.3 59.3 44.5 3.4 5.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.7 11.8 9.6 87.7 63.6 47.2 4.8 10.5 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.5 12.9 9.9 103.3 66.5 47.3 1.0 5.8 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.8 8.5 8.9 80.2 60.6 45.7 2.0 4.4 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 1.1 10.9 11.1 100.4 67.7 47.1 0.4 2.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.6 20.3 12.9 82.4 58.5 44.3 7.2 15.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.6 9.8 9.1 83.9 59.3 43.3 1.8 9.0 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------