***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9.6 13.8 12.2 134.5 72.7 57.3 0.9 7.5 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.6 14.7 11.6 132.5 68.9 56.4 0.9 5.2 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.1 17.8 13.6 143.9 73.9 58.7 3.3 7.5 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.0 33.2 15.0 133.3 75.4 57.4 6.1 14.5 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 18.2 23.7 16.7 153.7 78.8 64.7 5.8 10.4 19.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 23.7 30.4 19.3 170.3 77.4 66.2 1.8 7.4 22.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.8 12.8 11.1 124.0 67.2 55.4 0.7 5.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 26.7 35.6 18.0 172.3 79.8 66.6 6.0 16.3 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 15.1 17.1 16.4 150.2 76.9 63.4 4.7 11.1 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 20.7 25.2 18.3 160.7 78.5 64.9 6.9 14.3 20.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 22.3 29.0 15.6 169.5 79.9 65.8 3.6 12.7 21.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 21.2 31.5 15.2 182.7 81.5 67.3 2.5 6.3 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 18.6 25.1 16.5 179.1 78.8 67.6 1.9 7.3 16.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.6 22.3 17.2 132.1 71.4 56.4 7.6 11.0 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.0 20.7 14.8 134.9 75.6 58.0 1.9 6.1 15.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 17.3 22.4 15.4 170.6 79.3 65.9 1.4 7.4 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.9 11.3 11.3 135.0 71.1 55.5 0.4 3.8 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 16.7 20.2 19.8 152.8 78.6 63.0 5.3 10.5 18.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.9 13.0 12.1 137.1 69.9 56.9 3.2 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 19.2 23.1 22.3 157.3 78.8 63.9 5.5 11.5 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.2 20.1 14.5 145.1 74.6 61.4 4.2 10.3 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.7 11.7 11.5 133.8 69.3 55.1 0.9 5.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.0 13.6 13.1 136.6 72.6 56.1 4.3 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.3 21.8 17.7 145.5 76.4 59.6 3.9 10.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 12.9 27.3 16.0 139.4 74.1 61.2 1.6 9.1 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 19.7 28.6 15.8 188.7 79.8 68.7 1.4 5.1 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.6 17.9 14.4 135.0 72.7 58.2 1.5 5.9 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.3 29.3 15.1 140.8 76.9 59.4 4.4 9.8 17.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 26.3 32.0 20.5 152.3 77.9 62.7 8.0 15.3 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.3 11.9 12.0 134.9 70.3 57.3 1.3 5.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------