***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9.1 16.1 9.9 114.7 69.5 49.4 2.4 5.8 14.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.9 9.3 10.1 99.3 66.7 51.8 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.7 10.0 105.9 66.4 51.1 3.5 6.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.7 9.4 72.7 56.9 44.8 2.4 6.7 12.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 7.0 9.0 12.7 100.0 63.6 54.0 1.6 4.9 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.7 4.8 14.9 85.3 60.6 49.9 0.8 3.1 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.5 9.7 96.8 62.9 50.0 2.1 2.8 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.0 14.7 104.4 65.4 54.0 4.5 9.5 12.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 1.5 7.8 11.7 93.9 62.9 49.7 1.7 3.2 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.2 15.1 14.9 106.0 64.0 54.3 1.1 6.7 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.8 12.0 102.8 64.0 54.0 1.0 3.3 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.7 10.7 88.4 63.2 49.6 1.0 4.3 7.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 6.3 7.3 12.1 85.7 62.0 50.0 1.2 3.7 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.3 12.4 13.3 99.3 62.8 53.0 1.3 4.9 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.3 11.1 11.8 89.4 67.3 52.0 1.1 2.8 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.3 5.0 11.5 90.6 63.3 51.4 1.8 2.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.4 6.9 9.5 88.2 63.1 49.6 0.9 3.3 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.7 16.9 108.5 64.7 54.9 2.2 5.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.8 10.1 101.9 66.5 52.8 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.0 13.5 19.8 112.9 67.1 54.6 3.2 8.7 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.5 9.7 97.5 66.0 51.1 2.2 4.8 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.8 9.3 83.4 60.5 51.0 0.6 5.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.7 14.8 10.7 107.9 65.9 53.6 2.7 4.6 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.0 9.1 13.8 107.3 65.5 54.4 1.8 5.0 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.4 10.2 12.2 104.2 64.4 53.2 2.6 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.5 7.6 11.0 91.9 66.1 48.2 1.0 3.2 7.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.7 15.0 11.6 110.7 66.5 51.4 3.6 5.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.2 6.9 10.8 80.2 62.5 49.4 0.3 4.8 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.3 19.1 17.5 108.0 64.5 53.9 4.2 8.9 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.3 9.9 10.3 105.6 66.7 52.4 1.1 4.9 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------