***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 3.5 10.1 8.5 57.8 44.7 35.5 2.6 10.4 19.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.5 10.0 68.4 52.2 39.9 4.0 9.2 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.6 5.7 8.0 54.5 41.4 32.6 1.6 7.6 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 2.6 3.1 9.1 55.1 40.9 31.2 2.8 8.8 15.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.8 6.7 11.6 71.1 44.7 38.9 2.8 8.1 17.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 1.9 3.9 9.5 55.9 37.2 29.1 2.9 7.5 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.5 9.6 9.5 64.7 51.4 37.3 3.4 9.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 5.0 10.8 8.3 52.1 38.0 30.7 7.7 15.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 2.9 1.5 6.4 43.1 30.1 26.8 3.4 11.1 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 2.9 6.6 7.9 48.6 32.9 29.2 6.6 10.5 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 3.0 4.7 7.9 55.1 38.8 31.5 2.3 11.4 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 2.6 5.2 6.8 48.8 38.3 27.8 2.8 10.3 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 1.6 3.7 10.1 62.5 40.8 33.4 2.4 7.8 16.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 3.3 4.7 8.8 53.1 35.1 30.4 3.6 10.4 29.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.5 4.6 10.3 64.8 47.5 35.8 1.6 5.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 1.1 2.8 8.3 54.7 36.5 30.0 2.6 5.2 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.2 9.5 66.2 50.4 39.0 1.9 7.9 17.2 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 4.0 7.6 8.9 50.7 35.3 30.0 6.1 15.1 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.1 7.3 9.5 64.0 49.1 36.9 3.7 7.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 6.1 8.6 10.1 49.6 34.7 29.7 8.0 19.5 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 2.8 4.1 7.5 51.4 38.6 32.1 2.6 9.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.0 9.3 9.7 64.4 49.3 37.8 2.7 9.7 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.8 6.0 8.7 57.6 42.7 32.7 2.1 10.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 2.6 5.2 8.5 53.6 37.1 31.3 4.1 9.8 21.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.9 19.1 14.4 82.2 56.9 46.2 4.7 12.5 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 2.0 3.7 8.5 50.9 37.0 29.1 2.3 9.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.3 9.0 11.2 67.8 50.5 39.3 2.3 9.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 2.0 3.1 9.1 58.6 41.6 32.3 1.2 7.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 5.0 14.4 8.8 48.6 34.4 29.1 13.1 18.0 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.9 9.1 10.0 67.4 51.1 39.0 6.0 8.9 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------