***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 22.6 22.6 21.7 0.7 62.6 57.1 21.2 22.3 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 22.7 23.2 22.0 0.8 64.4 58.9 21.7 22.4 23.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 23.1 23.3 21.8 0.6 60.4 56.6 21.8 22.8 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.0 15.8 19.2 0.2 53.5 52.1 14.9 15.7 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.6 20.0 0.5 56.9 55.6 22.0 23.5 23.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.8 18.5 0.6 59.1 57.1 21.5 22.2 23.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 22.4 22.9 21.9 0.7 63.8 58.4 21.2 22.1 22.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.9 13.1 19.2 1.0 64.1 61.0 11.6 12.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 23.2 23.4 20.7 0.7 56.7 57.3 22.2 22.9 23.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 22.7 23.2 19.8 0.9 61.3 60.0 21.4 22.3 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.5 20.0 0.7 58.0 57.6 22.0 23.1 23.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 22.9 23.3 19.9 0.9 61.4 59.2 21.3 22.7 23.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 23.8 23.8 19.6 0.6 56.2 56.5 22.3 23.5 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.7 20.7 0.9 64.1 59.2 21.8 22.9 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 21.3 22.9 19.8 0.1 52.1 51.3 21.9 22.8 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.3 19.7 0.6 57.2 56.3 22.8 24.1 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 21.9 22.2 21.3 0.4 61.0 55.7 21.1 21.6 22.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.6 19.3 1.1 61.8 60.9 20.8 21.8 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 22.5 23.0 22.2 0.9 64.8 59.8 21.3 22.2 23.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 18.4 19.3 17.5 1.2 65.6 62.1 17.8 18.1 19.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 21.7 23.4 21.3 0.6 58.5 56.5 21.6 23.2 23.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 22.6 23.5 21.4 0.5 61.8 56.7 21.5 22.2 23.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.2 22.1 1.0 64.8 61.3 21.6 22.5 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.9 23.2 20.6 0.9 61.5 58.7 21.6 22.7 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.9 20.1 0.6 60.5 56.2 21.4 22.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.6 24.0 19.4 0.6 60.7 56.9 22.0 23.4 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 22.7 23.0 21.0 0.7 63.5 57.9 21.3 22.4 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 21.2 22.9 19.6 0.2 52.8 51.6 22.0 22.7 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.7 18.2 18.6 1.2 64.2 61.6 16.5 17.4 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.5 23.0 22.1 0.8 63.9 58.7 21.2 22.2 23.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------