***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 19.0 20.8 19.4 0.2 52.9 51.7 20.3 20.7 21.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 19.1 21.1 19.5 0.3 53.0 52.3 20.2 20.9 21.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 19.1 21.2 19.3 0.1 51.3 50.8 20.2 21.1 22.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 11.5 14.0 17.1 0.0 51.7 50.1 11.8 13.4 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 21.9 21.5 17.5 0.0 51.0 50.1 19.7 21.5 22.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.5 20.7 16.1 -0.2 50.6 48.1 18.9 20.7 22.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 18.7 20.8 19.4 0.3 54.7 52.2 19.6 20.6 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.6 11.4 16.6 0.2 48.6 51.4 9.5 11.5 13.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.2 18.1 0.1 50.0 50.6 20.1 21.2 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 18.8 20.8 17.1 0.1 47.9 51.1 19.7 20.9 22.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 22.2 21.6 17.4 0.0 48.5 49.9 19.8 21.8 22.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 18.7 20.8 17.3 0.0 48.8 49.9 19.2 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 19.8 21.4 16.9 -0.3 47.4 47.3 20.5 21.7 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 19.0 21.4 18.0 0.1 50.0 51.2 19.9 21.4 22.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 21.1 20.5 17.3 0.0 52.0 51.0 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.4 17.1 -0.1 49.2 48.5 20.8 22.5 23.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 18.4 20.2 18.9 0.0 51.0 49.8 19.7 20.2 21.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 18.1 20.0 16.7 0.2 49.7 51.2 18.9 20.0 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 18.8 20.8 19.6 0.3 52.7 52.3 20.1 20.8 21.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 15.3 18.0 14.9 0.3 52.5 51.8 14.8 17.8 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 19.2 21.1 18.7 0.1 51.4 50.6 19.7 21.0 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 19.4 20.8 18.9 0.0 49.0 50.4 19.9 20.8 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 19.3 21.2 19.4 0.3 53.5 52.3 20.2 21.1 22.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 18.8 21.1 18.0 0.1 49.6 50.5 19.4 21.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 19.1 20.8 17.7 0.2 53.0 51.6 19.5 20.7 21.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 19.4 20.8 16.9 -0.2 48.8 47.5 20.0 21.2 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 19.4 21.2 18.6 0.3 53.4 52.1 20.4 21.0 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.5 17.3 0.0 51.1 49.9 18.1 20.4 22.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 14.2 16.6 15.9 0.2 50.4 51.4 14.4 16.5 18.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 18.8 20.9 19.6 0.3 52.6 52.3 19.9 20.8 21.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------