***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 19.2 20.9 19.8 -1.1 38.9 40.2 19.4 21.5 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 19.9 21.2 20.2 -1.0 39.0 41.0 21.1 22.3 23.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 20.2 20.9 19.8 -1.3 36.8 38.4 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 12.7 13.1 17.4 -1.5 29.5 37.0 13.4 14.5 14.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 20.4 20.5 17.7 -1.5 30.3 37.4 20.9 22.4 23.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 19.4 19.0 16.4 -1.4 32.4 39.0 19.0 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 19.6 21.5 20.1 -1.0 40.8 41.0 20.6 22.1 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 9.8 10.4 16.6 -1.5 32.6 38.6 10.4 11.3 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 20.1 20.5 18.3 -1.5 31.2 37.8 20.5 21.9 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 20.0 20.6 17.2 -1.5 32.3 37.9 20.6 21.9 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 20.2 20.0 17.5 -1.5 30.3 38.2 20.6 22.2 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 19.9 19.7 17.5 -1.5 31.9 38.7 19.8 21.6 23.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 20.3 21.3 17.1 -1.6 31.2 38.4 21.3 22.4 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 20.7 21.0 18.4 -1.4 36.6 38.4 21.0 22.6 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 19.9 20.0 17.7 -1.3 29.4 37.6 20.5 21.3 22.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 21.1 20.6 17.3 -1.5 30.1 38.1 20.9 23.0 23.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 19.5 20.3 19.6 -1.2 35.4 38.9 19.9 21.5 22.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 19.6 20.2 16.8 -1.6 33.1 37.8 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 19.7 21.0 20.2 -1.0 39.6 40.9 20.6 21.8 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 16.2 16.0 14.9 -1.5 34.1 38.4 16.0 18.0 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 20.2 20.9 19.0 -1.4 33.1 38.0 20.8 22.0 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 20.1 21.5 19.6 -1.3 36.2 39.1 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 20.2 21.0 20.0 -1.0 38.9 40.7 20.5 22.0 23.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 20.2 20.6 18.3 -1.5 34.8 37.6 20.5 22.3 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 19.4 20.7 18.0 -1.2 35.4 39.2 20.7 21.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 20.2 20.8 17.2 -1.6 34.1 38.0 20.8 21.9 23.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 19.6 21.2 19.0 -1.0 39.6 40.8 20.7 22.0 22.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 19.7 20.0 17.6 -1.5 28.0 37.0 20.3 21.9 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 15.3 15.4 16.0 -1.5 34.5 38.1 15.4 16.8 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 19.6 21.5 20.2 -1.0 39.9 40.8 20.8 21.8 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------