***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.09.2015.-27.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 23.3 23.1 22.3 0.7 57.0 56.7 21.9 22.9 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 23.8 24.1 22.5 0.7 59.4 56.9 21.8 23.2 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.8 22.3 0.7 56.5 55.7 21.5 23.6 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 16.6 16.3 20.1 0.3 55.0 52.6 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.5 20.5 0.6 55.8 54.9 21.9 24.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.8 19.1 0.8 58.8 56.7 21.1 23.0 24.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.7 22.4 0.7 58.4 56.7 21.5 22.6 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.6 19.6 1.1 61.3 59.3 10.5 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.0 21.1 0.8 56.0 56.2 21.6 23.2 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.8 20.1 1.0 58.0 57.7 21.0 23.0 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 23.9 24.7 20.4 0.8 57.8 57.0 21.8 23.3 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.0 24.2 20.5 1.1 61.9 58.9 21.0 22.3 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.1 25.2 20.0 0.9 60.4 57.0 22.1 23.3 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.5 21.0 0.7 55.8 55.8 21.2 23.1 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.2 20.3 0.2 50.6 51.1 22.5 23.2 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.7 25.6 20.2 0.7 59.0 55.9 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 22.8 23.6 21.8 0.3 55.9 53.4 21.4 22.1 24.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.8 19.6 1.0 57.8 58.1 20.3 22.3 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.4 24.0 22.7 0.8 59.7 57.3 21.3 22.6 24.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 19.9 17.8 1.1 60.8 59.4 15.8 18.7 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 24.1 24.1 21.7 0.7 56.1 55.6 21.4 23.5 25.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 21.6 23.6 21.8 0.3 54.5 53.5 21.7 22.8 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.9 23.9 22.5 0.9 59.3 57.7 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.4 20.9 0.8 56.2 56.2 21.5 22.8 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.4 20.5 0.6 57.5 55.5 21.8 23.0 23.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 24.2 24.5 20.0 0.9 60.5 57.2 21.7 23.6 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 23.4 23.3 21.5 0.8 57.1 56.9 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.6 20.3 0.3 52.6 52.0 22.2 23.6 24.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.5 18.9 1.1 58.5 58.6 15.9 17.3 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.5 24.3 22.6 0.8 58.5 57.2 21.6 23.0 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------