***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 24.6 25.1 25.3 2.7 78.8 75.9 22.3 23.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 25.6 26.5 25.9 3.2 80.4 77.5 22.0 23.6 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 25.7 26.2 25.8 3.1 80.1 77.5 22.2 24.5 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 18.6 18.9 22.1 1.9 76.2 72.1 15.5 16.6 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 26.0 26.4 24.2 3.0 80.8 78.1 23.1 24.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 25.8 26.8 22.6 3.1 81.7 79.5 22.3 23.6 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 25.3 26.2 25.6 2.9 79.7 75.9 21.6 23.3 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 15.3 15.9 23.8 4.3 88.8 85.4 12.2 13.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 25.5 26.4 25.3 3.4 83.8 80.5 22.9 24.7 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 25.8 26.3 24.6 4.2 87.4 84.3 22.8 24.3 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 25.8 26.3 24.5 3.4 83.2 80.6 23.4 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 25.9 26.8 24.3 3.8 86.1 83.1 22.3 23.9 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 27.2 27.8 24.4 3.4 83.1 80.4 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 25.8 26.9 25.4 4.1 84.4 82.9 22.6 23.5 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 25.8 25.9 23.8 1.6 73.8 70.6 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 15 85 100 27.3 28.1 24.3 3.2 82.2 79.5 24.3 25.3 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 24.7 25.4 24.9 2.7 79.4 74.8 21.4 22.6 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 24.4 26.3 24.1 4.7 89.5 86.2 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 25.5 26.0 26.2 3.5 82.3 79.5 22.2 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 21.2 22.7 22.5 4.9 93.8 88.5 17.8 19.7 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 25.6 26.2 25.7 3.1 81.3 78.1 22.9 24.6 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 25.6 26.3 25.2 3.1 80.5 77.8 21.3 23.5 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 25.7 26.8 26.4 4.0 85.1 82.4 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 25.4 26.1 25.3 4.1 85.4 82.7 22.7 23.9 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 25.1 25.4 24.0 2.6 77.5 75.4 22.5 24.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 26.7 27.5 23.7 3.4 83.3 80.7 23.0 24.8 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 24.9 25.4 24.8 2.8 79.3 76.5 22.5 24.0 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 26.1 26.6 23.1 1.8 76.1 72.0 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 20.2 22.5 23.6 4.9 91.2 87.5 16.9 19.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 25.5 26.1 25.9 3.1 79.5 77.5 21.9 23.5 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------