***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.9 13.2 0.9 68.6 62.9 9.3 10.2 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.1 12.9 0.8 64.3 63.1 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.6 12.9 13.0 0.8 63.7 62.3 11.6 12.4 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.3 10.3 0.4 61.0 57.6 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.1 10.4 0.5 60.7 58.7 8.6 9.5 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.8 8.7 0.6 61.0 60.5 7.6 8.5 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 10.6 11.2 12.9 0.8 65.5 62.7 9.6 10.3 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 5.2 5.5 9.2 0.9 70.8 66.3 3.8 4.6 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.1 10.9 0.6 60.1 59.8 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 10.8 11.0 9.7 0.8 67.4 64.4 9.2 10.1 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.3 10.0 0.6 63.5 61.0 8.9 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 8.8 9.1 9.9 0.8 67.7 64.4 7.7 8.7 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.7 9.2 0.5 61.4 59.9 8.1 9.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.6 11.2 11.1 0.7 65.3 63.2 9.7 10.4 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.0 11.0 0.4 63.1 58.0 10.1 10.4 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.1 9.6 0.5 61.8 60.0 9.6 10.5 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.6 11.1 12.3 0.6 61.7 60.6 9.7 10.3 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 9.8 10.0 9.2 0.8 70.8 64.9 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.3 11.0 12.9 0.8 64.5 63.7 9.4 10.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 5.4 5.6 7.6 0.8 67.3 63.6 4.5 5.2 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.2 10.7 12.3 0.7 62.3 60.9 9.1 9.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.5 10.0 12.3 0.6 60.2 59.6 8.6 9.2 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.6 12.7 0.9 66.6 64.9 8.9 9.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.5 11.0 0.8 67.3 63.9 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 11.4 11.7 11.8 0.8 67.9 63.1 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.6 9.4 0.6 62.0 61.2 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.9 12.5 0.9 68.1 63.6 9.7 10.6 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.3 10.4 0.4 60.7 56.6 7.9 8.7 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 8.4 9.0 8.7 0.9 69.6 64.8 7.3 8.2 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.4 13.2 0.8 65.1 63.2 9.5 10.8 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------