***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.10.2015.-11.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.5 10.7 -0.1 47.1 47.9 7.9 8.6 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.8 8.5 10.5 -0.1 45.7 47.8 7.8 9.4 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.1 10.4 -0.2 43.0 46.5 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.7 8.2 -0.1 48.9 48.1 5.4 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.9 7.9 8.0 -0.2 43.8 46.8 6.2 8.5 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.8 6.3 6.5 -0.2 44.2 48.1 5.6 6.9 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 7.9 9.0 10.5 -0.1 46.7 48.1 8.0 9.2 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.4 6.7 -0.2 41.7 47.3 3.1 3.6 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.1 8.7 8.4 -0.3 40.9 46.5 8.1 9.0 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 7.4 8.3 7.2 -0.3 39.8 46.0 7.6 8.8 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.5 7.7 -0.2 43.0 47.1 6.9 8.0 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 5.7 6.5 7.5 -0.2 42.7 47.5 5.8 6.7 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 6.3 6.7 6.9 -0.3 43.3 46.7 6.0 7.4 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.1 8.5 -0.3 40.5 45.4 8.3 9.3 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.3 8.8 0.1 50.0 49.8 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 7.7 8.8 7.3 -0.2 44.4 47.1 7.7 9.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.9 9.9 -0.2 43.4 47.0 8.4 9.2 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.0 7.4 6.7 -0.3 39.3 45.3 6.4 7.7 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.1 10.4 -0.1 44.8 47.6 8.0 9.3 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.4 2.8 5.3 -0.2 40.1 47.0 2.4 3.7 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.1 7.9 9.7 -0.2 42.5 46.8 7.2 8.2 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.8 9.9 -0.2 42.2 46.4 7.2 8.6 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.9 10.1 -0.1 44.1 47.4 7.7 9.1 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.4 7.5 8.4 -0.3 40.4 45.1 7.3 8.5 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.0 9.3 0.0 47.1 49.1 7.6 9.4 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.5 7.2 7.2 -0.3 41.0 46.9 6.5 7.8 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.4 10.0 0.0 47.9 48.9 7.5 9.5 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.3 7.4 8.3 -0.1 48.8 48.0 6.5 7.5 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 5.7 6.8 6.2 -0.3 40.9 45.9 6.6 7.4 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.3 10.7 -0.1 45.6 47.8 7.9 9.7 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------