***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.09.2015.-04.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 8.0 9.1 11.7 -0.5 42.4 45.0 8.6 9.6 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.7 9.2 11.5 -0.5 44.3 43.9 8.5 10.1 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 10.3 12.1 11.5 -0.4 48.3 45.4 10.4 12.3 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.6 7.0 9.0 -0.3 45.4 46.7 5.9 7.5 8.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 7.1 8.5 8.9 -0.3 45.6 47.1 7.4 8.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 6.7 8.1 7.4 -0.1 51.4 49.7 6.8 8.0 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 8.2 9.4 11.4 -0.6 41.5 43.6 8.4 9.9 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 2.6 3.8 7.8 0.0 49.7 50.3 2.9 3.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 8.2 9.4 9.5 -0.2 44.9 47.3 8.8 10.0 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 8.1 9.6 8.2 -0.1 47.5 49.2 8.2 9.7 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.7 9.1 8.6 -0.1 49.5 49.3 8.1 9.1 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.7 8.3 8.5 0.0 51.8 50.8 6.8 8.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.5 9.0 7.9 -0.1 50.9 50.2 7.7 8.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 8.9 10.0 9.6 -0.4 45.9 45.8 8.9 10.1 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 8.5 10.0 9.6 -0.2 46.9 47.9 8.7 10.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 8.6 9.9 8.2 -0.1 49.4 49.4 8.9 9.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 8.5 9.0 10.8 -0.8 37.4 41.3 8.1 10.2 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 7.0 8.2 7.8 -0.2 46.8 48.3 7.0 8.7 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 8.1 9.2 11.5 -0.4 47.0 44.9 8.4 9.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.2 4.5 6.2 -0.3 44.9 46.9 3.8 4.8 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.4 9.2 10.8 -0.3 45.9 46.6 8.5 9.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 7.5 8.3 10.8 -0.7 38.1 41.8 8.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 7.8 9.1 11.2 -0.3 48.3 46.3 8.0 9.1 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 8.1 9.4 9.6 -0.2 46.9 47.2 8.5 9.6 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 7.9 8.9 10.1 -0.3 42.6 46.1 8.4 9.8 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 7.7 8.8 8.2 -0.1 50.3 49.8 7.9 8.8 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 8.1 9.9 10.8 -0.4 41.9 45.3 7.9 10.4 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 6.8 7.7 9.1 -0.3 46.2 47.4 7.1 8.1 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.1 7.3 7.3 -0.2 47.1 48.0 6.5 7.7 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.1 9.8 11.7 -0.5 44.5 44.6 8.9 10.0 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------