***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.09.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 13.4 14.7 16.8 3.0 89.8 85.4 10.6 11.9 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 12.7 13.8 16.2 2.8 90.1 85.2 10.2 10.7 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 15.0 16.5 16.4 2.6 89.0 84.6 11.9 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 10.2 10.5 12.6 1.3 77.8 74.1 8.0 8.7 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 12.4 12.8 13.4 1.7 80.4 78.1 9.8 10.9 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 11.1 11.5 11.5 1.8 82.7 81.8 8.8 10.0 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 12.9 13.9 16.3 2.8 87.8 84.0 10.0 11.5 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 7.1 8.2 12.4 2.6 93.2 88.7 4.1 5.6 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 15 85 100 13.1 13.6 13.9 1.8 82.0 79.8 10.4 11.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 13.0 13.5 13.0 2.4 90.8 87.2 10.1 11.4 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 12.0 12.4 13.0 1.8 83.2 80.8 10.0 11.0 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 10.9 11.8 12.8 2.2 89.9 85.8 8.4 9.8 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 11.4 12.0 12.1 1.6 83.4 80.8 9.3 10.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 13.3 14.4 14.3 2.5 91.1 87.1 10.4 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 13.3 13.3 13.9 1.0 73.1 71.1 11.1 12.2 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 13.2 13.6 12.6 1.6 81.3 80.2 9.9 11.9 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 12.9 13.3 15.5 2.7 89.0 84.4 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 11.7 12.7 12.4 2.6 93.5 88.8 9.2 10.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 12.9 14.3 16.2 2.8 90.4 85.7 10.3 11.5 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 7.7 8.7 10.5 2.5 93.4 88.8 4.9 6.4 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 12.9 13.6 15.7 2.2 85.0 81.9 10.2 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 12.1 12.9 15.5 2.4 87.9 83.3 9.0 10.4 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 12.5 14.0 16.1 2.8 90.2 86.9 9.4 10.7 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 12.6 13.6 14.3 2.5 91.2 87.3 9.9 11.1 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 13.3 14.5 15.7 2.6 88.7 84.3 9.9 12.2 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 11.7 12.4 12.1 1.9 86.0 82.1 9.2 10.8 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 13.8 15.8 16.1 2.8 90.1 85.2 9.9 11.8 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 11.4 11.8 12.9 1.0 74.5 71.2 9.2 9.9 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 10.7 11.7 11.7 2.6 94.0 90.0 7.9 9.7 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 13.3 14.9 16.6 2.9 89.6 85.3 10.5 11.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------