***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 30.6 43.5 36.8 80.7 45.1 42.1 34.3 45.5 57.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 31.6 44.2 39.2 87.8 47.4 45.0 33.3 46.4 52.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 35.5 49.1 39.3 88.0 47.7 46.1 36.6 50.2 60.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 44.3 69.7 45.3 93.1 50.1 47.0 52.4 69.7 80.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 30.5 47.7 42.9 96.1 52.0 49.0 31.6 45.2 62.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 27.9 42.9 49.0 96.0 51.3 47.4 30.5 42.5 53.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 30.8 43.9 38.0 86.5 47.4 44.6 31.2 45.6 54.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 49.3 77.7 53.6 108.6 60.5 52.0 49.7 65.8 84.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 33.1 47.0 43.0 96.8 56.4 49.2 35.3 44.7 56.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 38.1 52.4 51.7 103.7 57.8 51.0 42.3 50.0 57.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 31.1 50.1 47.1 107.7 59.0 52.7 26.8 43.6 53.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 24.9 51.7 48.0 110.9 62.3 52.7 26.0 44.6 63.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 29.7 47.4 50.1 105.7 59.7 51.7 34.9 43.8 49.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 71.5 64.3 49.9 90.3 50.8 47.4 46.3 63.8 77.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 27.5 43.0 39.6 87.4 52.9 44.7 32.4 41.6 59.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 24.4 41.7 47.6 105.8 58.1 51.7 30.4 38.3 47.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 31.1 43.2 39.4 85.0 47.9 44.3 35.6 43.6 56.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 39.6 53.9 52.8 97.7 53.5 48.3 39.0 52.6 68.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 31.1 44.3 39.6 87.3 46.8 45.1 34.9 45.4 55.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 47.9 59.7 60.0 100.3 53.2 48.9 45.0 58.6 69.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 37.0 51.1 39.7 91.0 54.5 47.0 36.7 49.0 64.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 28.6 41.8 41.7 84.8 48.4 43.7 35.0 43.8 57.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 30.6 46.6 39.7 85.2 45.6 44.8 35.4 47.8 52.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 63.0 59.9 47.4 93.9 54.2 48.7 36.0 57.4 71.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 41.0 53.9 39.2 79.3 43.9 41.7 42.8 57.2 68.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 28.4 47.1 48.3 105.1 59.3 50.5 28.5 39.7 53.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 37.5 48.6 37.9 77.8 42.3 40.4 34.4 51.5 61.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 28.3 50.3 44.4 95.7 54.0 47.3 31.5 47.1 58.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 54.7 78.9 55.3 97.8 53.6 48.3 60.2 76.2 96.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 29.6 42.8 38.6 86.9 46.5 44.8 29.7 44.3 51.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------