***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.6 5.7 8.8 97.8 65.8 50.1 0.9 3.5 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.8 12.3 8.7 108.0 67.2 51.5 0.4 3.9 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.9 12.0 9.4 97.4 64.7 50.8 0.7 3.8 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 15.6 32.3 10.3 117.1 74.6 54.5 4.0 10.0 20.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 8.0 11.5 10.1 112.5 71.4 56.0 2.2 4.9 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.1 17.3 11.2 125.1 74.0 57.5 1.6 7.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.5 13.3 8.8 110.3 65.9 50.4 0.3 5.3 13.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 13.2 19.0 12.3 119.6 69.0 57.5 4.7 10.8 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.7 12.5 10.0 100.5 64.6 54.0 1.4 9.0 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.8 14.1 11.7 105.6 65.4 55.2 2.9 8.8 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 6.6 16.1 10.2 120.1 72.4 57.9 1.7 3.7 9.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.9 11.7 10.8 128.4 72.6 59.5 1.4 5.4 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 7.2 12.6 11.3 128.9 74.3 60.6 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.3 12.0 98.3 63.2 54.2 3.0 8.0 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.5 17.3 8.8 111.4 75.0 54.7 1.1 4.4 13.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.8 17.9 10.4 126.6 74.9 60.0 1.2 4.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.5 14.4 9.5 118.1 71.8 51.8 0.3 5.3 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.9 14.3 12.0 94.9 61.5 53.2 2.3 9.9 15.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 7.5 9.1 8.7 102.4 67.2 52.6 0.9 4.2 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 15.1 21.6 14.7 105.1 66.1 55.2 5.3 12.7 21.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.2 11.5 9.4 99.4 64.8 51.8 2.4 6.1 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.7 16.5 10.5 123.0 72.0 52.3 0.2 6.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.0 8.5 9.1 93.4 65.7 53.8 0.5 4.2 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 9.2 11.1 11.3 94.4 62.1 52.7 1.4 7.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.4 10.1 9.3 96.1 65.5 51.3 0.9 5.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.8 16.3 11.6 140.1 73.6 58.5 2.3 6.5 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.6 6.7 8.9 94.5 63.4 49.7 1.2 4.3 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.8 16.5 9.7 119.4 75.7 56.5 0.3 3.8 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 16.8 20.2 12.5 96.0 61.9 53.7 5.4 13.8 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.3 9.5 8.8 103.5 66.0 50.3 0.7 4.9 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------