***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.4 8.1 83.7 56.4 47.7 1.1 5.6 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.3 8.7 83.1 54.9 44.5 1.2 3.9 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.3 9.1 95.7 61.3 49.8 2.1 6.9 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 7.8 23.9 11.0 96.3 64.8 50.6 9.9 14.9 24.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.5 17.7 10.9 114.0 66.3 53.1 5.2 9.5 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.8 20.6 13.0 116.1 67.4 53.4 2.4 9.1 19.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.2 7.1 8.4 80.1 55.8 43.0 1.4 4.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.8 22.3 13.7 134.1 72.5 54.6 8.1 15.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 6.1 14.5 11.3 126.7 69.1 54.4 3.4 11.6 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.0 23.8 13.4 133.1 72.0 55.2 8.9 16.2 21.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.0 22.7 11.7 129.5 70.6 54.2 8.6 12.6 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.2 21.6 12.5 136.3 71.8 54.9 4.6 7.0 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.6 19.5 12.9 131.4 71.6 56.4 3.0 8.5 17.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.6 18.9 12.1 99.5 63.7 50.9 6.6 11.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.7 16.9 9.5 95.4 67.5 51.0 4.2 10.7 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 17.8 12.0 126.4 70.6 56.0 3.7 9.3 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 1.5 4.2 8.4 73.5 54.8 41.5 0.6 3.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 7.4 18.9 13.4 125.2 70.0 52.1 6.0 12.7 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.0 8.7 84.3 54.6 46.3 3.5 5.7 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 7.0 18.1 15.3 122.5 68.7 51.9 5.0 11.4 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.9 18.4 9.6 110.3 64.9 53.8 5.3 10.6 18.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.5 8.9 71.9 54.8 43.5 0.9 4.1 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.8 9.0 86.8 56.3 48.9 4.0 8.5 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 5.7 21.1 11.8 114.4 69.2 52.2 4.1 9.9 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.7 15.8 8.9 85.6 58.6 48.2 5.1 9.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.0 16.8 13.3 125.1 70.8 55.5 3.5 6.3 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.2 8.6 8.2 78.4 54.7 46.1 2.7 7.3 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.8 17.6 10.5 100.0 65.9 51.8 6.5 11.0 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.0 33.8 14.1 123.8 70.8 52.2 10.6 19.8 30.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.7 5.3 8.6 83.8 56.3 45.6 1.9 4.4 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------