***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.09.2016.-25.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.2 14.5 100.4 60.2 53.1 1.4 7.2 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 11.7 15.4 111.3 64.8 55.7 1.9 6.4 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.2 15.2 109.9 61.4 55.3 2.3 6.8 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.2 10.4 17.0 105.5 61.9 53.1 2.5 6.7 13.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.3 14.3 16.8 117.4 64.8 56.3 0.5 4.2 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.1 19.0 107.9 61.7 54.8 1.6 8.0 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.2 13.7 14.8 109.8 64.8 54.8 2.4 4.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.4 19.6 20.8 141.0 73.4 61.5 2.6 7.7 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.5 15.4 17.0 120.6 67.6 56.9 0.5 5.1 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 16.2 22.6 20.6 138.5 73.3 61.6 1.1 4.4 20.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.8 17.2 19.3 130.3 70.4 59.2 0.5 2.2 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.6 12.4 19.2 137.6 72.9 60.4 0.2 5.4 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 14.4 18.9 20.7 137.5 74.7 62.3 0.3 5.8 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.5 15.2 18.3 106.6 66.1 55.0 1.7 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.1 13.7 16.3 104.8 68.4 51.9 0.8 2.3 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.0 7.1 19.1 124.5 67.6 58.5 1.3 2.8 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.7 11.4 15.0 113.4 65.8 55.0 1.3 2.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.4 15.3 20.0 126.3 71.9 58.8 1.0 4.1 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.5 16.7 15.6 110.9 64.1 55.3 1.4 3.2 17.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.1 16.7 21.1 122.4 67.7 58.2 0.9 9.4 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.2 12.1 15.9 110.6 63.5 54.9 1.8 4.9 13.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.4 12.4 15.4 111.4 66.4 54.0 2.0 7.8 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.3 10.9 15.3 107.8 62.2 54.5 2.4 4.6 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.0 17.3 18.0 119.5 68.5 58.1 1.1 7.4 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.4 15.4 94.4 61.8 52.8 1.6 7.0 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.3 17.6 18.2 121.4 70.2 57.5 0.6 4.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.6 10.1 15.2 96.7 62.2 52.4 1.2 5.3 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.1 10.0 18.0 114.5 66.5 53.7 0.2 2.9 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 22.1 21.0 124.7 70.0 58.5 4.2 9.6 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.0 9.1 15.0 109.3 64.2 54.7 0.8 4.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------