***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 4.0 6.9 5.4 43.1 38.6 32.2 3.8 11.5 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 2.3 6.6 6.5 52.6 42.6 32.4 4.0 7.5 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 3.1 5.6 5.6 48.3 40.7 32.5 2.6 9.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 2.6 7.5 7.0 56.9 45.0 33.2 2.7 8.6 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 2.3 3.4 5.1 43.6 37.9 31.4 3.0 9.3 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 1.1 1.5 5.8 44.1 35.4 30.8 1.4 3.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 1.9 4.9 6.1 50.4 44.6 32.1 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 4.5 10.0 6.8 48.5 36.6 30.0 8.7 17.9 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.0 3.8 4.7 41.2 37.5 31.3 2.8 10.3 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 2.8 6.6 6.0 43.7 34.5 29.1 5.2 12.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 1.7 6.9 5.8 52.6 43.3 30.5 1.6 7.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 1.9 3.9 5.5 47.0 37.5 29.5 2.6 8.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 87 13 0 100 0.7 2.0 5.2 37.9 32.3 27.2 2.1 5.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 3.7 4.8 7.6 55.6 38.1 31.2 3.5 12.4 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 1.3 3.6 5.0 41.9 48.2 31.6 1.4 3.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 1.0 3.4 6.1 52.1 39.7 30.9 2.6 5.3 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 1.8 5.5 6.5 47.6 42.3 30.6 3.2 7.8 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 3.2 7.3 7.4 49.2 35.5 30.2 6.9 10.6 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 3.1 6.4 6.6 53.0 42.9 32.6 3.5 8.5 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.6 10.0 8.8 55.5 40.6 32.7 7.8 12.4 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.0 3.1 4.8 43.6 38.8 31.1 2.6 8.8 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.6 4.3 6.9 48.1 43.5 30.7 2.2 7.8 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.8 7.2 6.3 51.3 43.7 30.7 4.7 8.9 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 2.1 4.9 6.3 47.8 37.4 29.8 3.8 9.5 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 4.6 7.8 5.6 42.9 40.7 33.9 2.2 12.5 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 1.0 1.9 5.2 43.3 40.8 31.5 1.2 3.5 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.8 5.4 5.6 42.7 40.9 32.7 1.8 8.9 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 2.0 4.2 6.2 51.5 45.6 32.2 2.3 6.5 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 5.7 11.7 7.7 50.3 35.0 30.4 10.8 17.4 33.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 2.9 7.1 6.2 51.9 42.2 32.6 4.3 9.1 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------