***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 23.2 23.4 22.8 1.3 72.9 67.3 21.5 22.3 23.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 23.7 23.9 23.1 1.5 74.8 70.2 22.0 23.1 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 23.8 23.8 23.1 1.3 71.8 67.7 22.1 23.1 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.6 20.3 1.2 71.9 65.7 15.1 16.0 16.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 24.2 24.2 21.1 1.0 68.8 62.8 22.3 23.4 24.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.3 19.0 0.8 63.0 60.3 21.8 22.4 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 23.4 23.7 23.1 1.5 74.5 70.2 21.5 22.5 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 13.4 13.2 19.1 0.7 64.5 58.7 11.7 12.6 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 24.1 24.2 21.8 1.1 70.3 64.9 22.6 23.1 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 23.7 23.9 20.2 0.9 68.7 62.4 21.8 22.5 23.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 24.1 24.4 21.0 0.9 68.4 61.3 22.5 23.2 24.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 23.6 23.5 20.0 0.6 62.6 57.7 21.6 22.7 23.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 22.4 24.2 20.2 0.7 59.7 58.6 22.6 23.7 24.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 24.1 24.1 21.6 1.2 72.1 66.8 22.1 23.2 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 23.9 24.5 22.2 1.6 78.7 73.1 22.2 23.0 23.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 24.9 24.9 20.6 0.9 65.6 60.9 23.2 24.0 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 23.0 23.4 22.9 1.7 77.9 72.8 21.3 22.0 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 23.0 23.2 19.6 1.0 69.1 63.5 21.2 21.9 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 23.4 23.6 23.2 1.6 75.3 70.5 21.6 22.6 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 19.3 19.3 17.3 0.7 62.7 59.6 17.9 18.2 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 24.0 24.1 22.6 1.1 70.0 64.9 22.0 23.1 23.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 23.8 24.1 22.8 1.6 75.4 71.4 21.9 22.8 24.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 23.6 23.9 23.3 1.7 78.7 71.8 21.8 23.0 23.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 23.8 24.1 21.6 1.2 72.4 66.3 22.0 22.7 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 23.3 23.6 21.4 1.2 73.7 66.6 21.7 22.6 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.9 19.4 0.4 56.6 54.7 22.4 23.1 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 23.4 23.6 22.2 1.3 73.2 68.2 21.7 22.8 23.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 24.2 24.4 21.1 1.3 72.5 67.5 22.3 23.0 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 18.7 18.9 18.8 0.9 68.0 62.7 16.7 17.7 18.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 23.5 23.6 23.1 1.4 72.9 68.8 21.6 22.7 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------