***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.10.2016.-09.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 19.8 21.2 19.8 -0.2 48.7 47.3 19.9 21.3 22.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 19.8 21.2 19.9 -0.1 47.4 48.8 20.9 21.2 22.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 19.6 21.6 20.2 -0.1 47.8 48.1 20.8 21.7 22.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 11.8 13.8 17.7 -0.2 46.8 46.8 12.0 14.6 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 19.5 20.7 18.3 -0.3 44.8 46.9 20.2 21.5 22.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 18.6 20.1 16.5 -0.3 42.1 46.7 19.4 20.8 22.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 19.6 21.0 19.9 -0.1 46.5 48.2 20.1 21.1 21.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 9.4 10.1 16.8 -0.4 40.4 46.4 9.9 11.5 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 19.5 21.2 18.8 -0.1 45.6 48.3 20.5 21.6 22.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 19.1 20.6 17.7 -0.2 43.5 48.2 19.8 20.9 22.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 19.7 21.1 18.0 -0.3 42.0 46.6 20.3 21.6 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 19.3 19.7 17.5 -0.5 40.0 45.0 19.4 21.0 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 20.3 21.4 17.1 -0.5 41.9 44.8 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 19.7 21.1 18.8 0.0 45.8 49.9 20.3 21.6 22.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 19.0 20.8 18.6 0.0 49.7 48.8 19.3 20.8 21.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 20.6 22.3 17.7 -0.4 43.2 45.8 21.3 22.8 23.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 21.1 20.6 19.7 0.0 48.1 49.7 19.9 20.7 21.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 18.4 19.9 17.4 -0.1 45.5 49.2 19.2 20.1 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 19.5 21.0 20.1 0.0 48.8 49.2 20.6 21.1 21.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 15.6 16.8 15.0 -0.3 43.2 47.3 15.9 17.1 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 19.2 21.0 19.5 -0.2 45.5 47.5 20.3 21.4 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 22.0 21.7 19.6 -0.1 51.8 49.5 20.2 21.6 22.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 19.8 21.5 20.2 0.0 49.5 50.0 20.8 21.5 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 19.8 21.0 18.7 -0.1 46.7 49.4 20.2 21.7 22.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 19.4 20.7 18.3 -0.2 49.7 47.0 19.9 20.7 21.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 19.9 20.9 17.0 -0.5 38.1 44.6 20.3 21.5 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 19.8 21.6 19.1 -0.2 49.8 47.4 20.8 21.6 22.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 18.6 20.6 18.0 -0.1 45.8 47.6 19.3 21.1 22.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 15.0 16.2 16.6 -0.1 44.9 48.5 14.5 16.7 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 19.3 20.9 20.0 -0.1 48.1 48.1 20.4 20.9 22.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------