***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.09.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.09.2016.-02.10.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 21.6 20.3 21.6 0.3 46.4 52.6 19.4 20.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 20.3 22.0 21.7 0.4 50.9 54.5 20.2 21.9 23.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 20.2 21.5 21.9 0.3 48.1 52.7 20.4 21.6 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 12.9 14.2 19.6 0.4 52.1 53.4 13.3 14.1 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 20.3 22.0 20.0 0.1 47.6 50.4 20.4 22.0 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 19.2 20.9 18.1 0.0 48.1 49.8 19.9 21.0 22.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.4 21.6 0.4 50.4 54.0 20.0 21.3 22.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 10.0 11.4 18.3 -0.2 48.4 48.7 10.3 11.6 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.6 20.3 0.1 47.2 50.5 20.5 21.8 23.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 19.8 21.5 19.1 0.0 48.1 49.9 20.4 21.5 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 20.4 22.2 19.7 0.0 49.1 50.0 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 19.6 21.4 19.2 -0.3 47.5 48.2 20.8 21.6 22.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 20.4 22.5 18.7 -0.3 47.7 48.2 20.6 22.8 23.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 23.3 22.7 20.2 0.1 48.1 51.2 20.7 22.8 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 20.3 22.2 20.8 0.9 59.8 58.0 20.7 21.6 22.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 21.0 22.6 19.4 0.0 48.8 50.0 21.3 22.8 24.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 19.6 21.4 21.5 0.5 52.7 55.0 19.6 21.2 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 21.5 20.9 18.7 0.0 49.9 50.0 19.9 20.9 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 20.3 22.2 21.9 0.5 50.8 54.6 20.1 22.0 22.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 15.8 17.6 16.4 -0.2 50.7 48.7 15.5 17.6 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 20.1 21.4 21.1 0.1 46.9 50.5 20.2 21.6 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.5 22.1 21.4 0.5 51.2 54.7 20.3 21.9 23.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.3 21.9 0.5 51.2 54.3 20.5 22.1 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.1 20.2 0.1 48.5 51.2 20.3 22.1 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 20.0 21.2 20.0 0.2 47.6 51.7 19.9 21.5 22.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 20.6 22.5 18.7 -0.3 48.6 47.8 20.1 22.6 23.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.0 21.4 20.8 0.3 47.6 52.4 19.6 21.5 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 20.3 22.4 20.0 0.6 54.2 54.9 20.3 22.2 22.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 15.1 17.4 17.9 -0.1 50.2 49.6 15.0 17.4 17.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 20.0 21.3 21.7 0.4 49.7 54.0 19.9 21.4 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------